气候变暖背景下新疆和中哈边境亚洲飞蝗适生区预测及变化  

Prediction breeding areas of Locusta migratoria migratoria(Orthoptera:Acridoidea)in Xinjiang and China-Kazakhstan border under the background of climate warming

作　　者：罗迪 刘孝贤 季荣[1] LUO Di;LIU Xiao-Xian;JI Rong(College of Life Sciences,Key Laboratory of Conservation and Management of Species Diversity in Xinjiang,International Research Center of Cross-border Pest Management in Central Asia,Urumqi 830054,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学生命科学学院,新疆特殊环境物种保护与调控生物学实验室,中亚区域跨境有害生物联合控制国际研究中心,乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,中国科学院荒漠与绿洲国家生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《环境昆虫学报》2022年第4期880-890,共11页Journal of Environmental Entomology

基　　金：“一带一路”国际科学组织联盟联合研究合作专项(ANSO-CR-KP-2020-04);国家重点研发计划子课题(2016YFE0203100);自治区区域协同创新专项(2020E01003)。

摘　　要：亚洲飞蝗Locusta migratoria migratoria是中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦边境区域重要害虫之一,具迁飞性且繁殖能力强,对农牧业经济造成巨大伤害。本文以亚洲飞蝗为研究对象,根据其发生区和相关生物学特性,利用CLIMEX 4.0.2和ArcGIS 10.2相结合,预测其在新疆和中哈边境区域亚洲飞蝗的潜在地理分布。亚洲飞蝗的适生区在新疆境内集中分布在北疆(42.69~48.29°N),包括伊犁、博尔塔拉中部、塔城西北部及南部、阿勒泰西部、昌吉和乌鲁木齐南部地区;哈萨克斯坦境内主要分布在北纬47.03~51.65°N区域,包括东哈萨克斯坦州北部、阿拉木图州东南部境内的湖泊及河流沿岸地区,这与亚洲飞蝗的现有分布点和历史发生记录吻合。未来气候变暖情景下,亚洲飞蝗在中哈边境新疆境内的适生区逐渐扩大,其中在阿勒泰、伊犁、昌吉及乌鲁木齐的高度适生区面积增加,哈密开始出现高度适生区;在哈萨克斯坦边境区域的适生区略有增加,其中东哈萨克斯坦州地区高度适生区面积减少明显。研究结果对区域内亚洲飞蝗的预测预报和综合防控具有重要意义。Locusta migratoria migratoria is one of the most important pests in the Xinjiang Uygur, Autonomous Region of China, and Kazakhstan border. It has the ability of migration and reproduction, which causes great harm to agriculture and animal husbandry economy. This article takes the L. migratoria migratoria as the research object, and uses CLIMEX 4.0.2(adaptability analysis software)and ArcGIS 10.2(geographic information system)to predict the potential geographic distribution of the L. migratoria migratoria in Xinjiang and the China-Kazakhstan region based on its disaster areas and related biological characteristics. Breeding areas for L. migratoria migratoria are concentrated in northern Xinjiang(42.69~48.29°N), including Yili, central Bortala, northwest and south Tacheng, western Altay, Changji and southern Urumqi. The territory of Kazakhstan is mainly distributed in the 47.03~51.65°N area of north latitude, including lakes and riverside areas in the northern part of East Kazakhstan and the southeastern part of Almaty, which is consistent with the existing distribution points and historical occurrence records of L. migratoria migratoria. Under future climate warming scenarios, the suitable areas of L. migratoria migratoria in Xinjiang on the China-Kazakhstan border will gradually expand. Among them, the areas of highly suitable areas in Altay, Yili, Changji and Urumqi will increase, and Hami will begin to appear highly suitable areas;The suitable areas in the border areas of Kazakhstan increased slightly, and the area of highly suitable areas in the East Kazakhstan region decreased significantly. The results of this study are of great significance to the prediction and integrated control of L. migratoria migratoria in the region.

关 键 词：气候变暖 亚洲飞蝗 CLIMEX ArcGIS 适生区 

分 类 号：Q968.1[生物学—昆虫学] S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]