基于临界点的杭州湾水体富营养化多年变化研究  

Multi-year change of eutrophication in Hangzhou Bay based on tipping point

作　　者：化天然 姚炎明[1] 韩宇 叶观琼 HUA Tianran;YAO Yanming;HAN Yu;YE Guanqiong(Ocean College,Zhejiang University,Zhoushan 316021,China;Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics and Estuary(Zhejiang Institute of Marine Planning and Design),Hangzhou 310020,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学海洋学院,浙江舟山316021 [2]浙江省水利河口研究院(浙江省海洋规划设计研究院),浙江杭州310020

出　　处：《海洋通报》2022年第4期473-480,共8页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42176216)。

摘　　要：本文基于曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)趋势检验和突变分析方法,利用工业废水氨氮排放量等3项指标探究杭州湾水体富营养化变化及其临界点。研究推测杭州湾水体在1996-2019年的富营养化演化过程可依据1998年和2010年两个临界点划分为稳定状态Ⅰ(1996-1998年)、过渡状态(1998-2010年)、稳定状态Ⅱ(2010-2019年)三个阶段,目前杭州湾水体富营养化情况呈现好转态势,但趋势并不明显,这也同时验证了前人的研究结论。现有环境政策取得了一定成效,未来仍需加强关注。囿于数据统计年限,有待通过其他研究方法对1996年之前的富营养化情况做进一步分析。Based on the Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation analysis method,the eutrophication change and critical point of Hangzhou Bay water body is investigated by using three indexes,including ammonia nitrogen discharge of industrial wastewater.The eutrophication evolution of Hangzhou Bay during 1996—2019 can be divided into three stages:stable state Ⅰ(1996-1998),transitional state(1998—2010)and stable state Ⅱ(2010—2019)according to the two critical points in 1998 and 2010.At present,the eutrophication of Hangzhou Bay water body is improving,but the trend is not obvious,which also verifies the conclusions of previous studies.Existing environmental policy tools have achieved some success,and more attention is needed in the future.Due to the limitation of statistical years,further analysis of eutrophication changes before 1996 needs to be carried out by other research methods.

关 键 词：杭州湾 富营养化 临界点 曼-肯德尔法 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学] X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]