经济联系对中部地区高质量发展影响的非线性空间效应——基于“中心—外围”城市视角  

Nonlinearly Spatial Effects of Economic Relations on High-quality Development in the Central China——Based on the"Center-periphery"Urban Perspective

作　　者：盛三化[1] 李菲 李佐军[2] 袁亮[1] SHENG San-hua;LI Fei;LI Zuo-jun;YUAN Liang(Economics and Management School,Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;State Council Development Research Center,Beijing 100100,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]国务院发展研究中心,北京100100

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2022年第9期1071-1080,共10页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:19ZDA089)。

摘　　要：基于“中心—外围”城市视角,选取2006—2019年我国中部六省80个地级市面板数据,运用多元回归面板模型和空间杜宾模型验证了经济联系对中部地区经济高质量发展影响的非线性空间效应。结果表明:(1)中部地区“中心—外围”城市经济联系总体呈上行趋势,但受到行政区划的阻碍。(2)“中心—外围”城市经济联系对中部地区经济高质量发展产生“倒U型”影响,且通过了稳健性和内生性检验。(3)中部地区经济高质量发展存在显著的空间自相关性。(4)“中心—外围”城市经济联系对经济高质量发展具有显著的“倒U型”空间直接效应和“正U型”空间溢出效应,而空间总效应呈现“正U型”特征。(5)当前“中心—外围”城市经济联系已越过空间直接效应关系曲线的拐点,但仍处于空间总效应关系曲线的左半段。因此,中部地区要持续增强城市经济联系,强化中心城市辐射带动能力,推动空间直接效应由“倒U型”向“N型”转变,促进城市经济联系快速越过“正U型”空间总效应关系曲线的拐点。Based on the“center-periphery”urban perspective,using panel data of 80 prefecture-level cities in six provinces in the Central China from 2006 to 2019,with the help of multiple regression panel model and spatial Dubin model,this paper verified the nonlinearly spatial effects of economic relations on the high-quality economic development in the Central region.The results showed that:(1)“Center-periphery”urban economic relations in the Central China were generally on an upward trend,but might be hindered by administrative divisions.(2)“Center-periphery”urban economic relations had an“inverted U-shaped”impact on high-quality economic development,and had passed the robustness and endogeneity tests.(3)There was a significantly spatial autocorrelation in the high-quality economic development of the Central China.(4)“Center-periphery”urban economic relations had a significantly“inverted U-shaped”spatially direct effect and“positive U-shaped”spatially spillover effect on high-quality economic development,while spatially total effect presented a“positive U-shaped”feature.(5)Currently,“center-periphery”urban economic relations had passed the inflection point in relationship curve of the spatially direct effect,but were in the left half of relationship curve of the spatially total effect.The Central China should continue to strengthen urban economic relations、the radiation and driving ability of central cities in order to promote the transformation of spatially direct effect from“inverted U-shaped”to“N-shaped”and promote urban economic relations to quickly cross the inflection point in the relationship curve of the“positive U-shaped”spatially total effect.

关 键 词：中部崛起 经济高质量发展 “中心—外围” 经济联系 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F293.1[经济管理—国民经济]