全国文明城市评选是否促进了旅游经济高质量发展?——来自准自然实验的经验证据  

Does the National Civilized City Selection Promote the High-quality Development of Tourism Economy?——Empirical Evidence from Quasi-natural Experiments

作　　者：刘彦秀 孙根紧[1] LIU Yan-xiu;SUN Gen-jin(Business and Tourism School,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611830,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学商旅学院,四川成都611830

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2022年第9期1126-1136,共11页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:20XJY005);四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地四川旅游发展研究中心项目(编号:LY21-03);四川省社会科学重点研究基地沱江流域高质量发展研究中心项目(编号:TJGZL2021-14)。

摘　　要：基于SBM-Malmquist模型测算的2003—2020年我国280个地级市的旅游全要素生产率,将全国文明城市评选视为一次“准自然实验”,使用多期渐进DID模型实证检验了全国文明城市评选政策对旅游经济高质量发展的影响效应,并采用DEA-BCC模型进行拓展分析。结果表明:(1)全国文明城市评选显著抑制了地级市旅游全要素生产率提升,经过系列稳健性检验,该结论依然成立。(2)政策效应会因城市所处地理区位、行政等级、旅游经济规模报酬状态的不同而呈现异质性。(3)进一步分析表明,全国文明城市评选迫使旅游业负外部性内部化,并存在“挤出效应”,阻碍旅游业要素结构升级。该政策虽然促进了城市绿色创新技术水平提升,但是带来的收益未能弥补其机会成本,使总体影响效应仍为负。Based on the total factor productivity of tourism calculated by SBM-Malmquist model from China 280 prefecture-level cities during 2003-2020,this paper took the national civilized city selection as a quasi-natural experiment setting to estimate the impact of the national civilized city selection on the high-quality development of tourism economy by the time-varying DID model,and used DEA-BCC model to expand the research.The results showed that:(1)The selection of national civilized city significantly inhibited the improvement of tourism total factor productivity,which was further confirmed using a series of robustness checks.(2)Subsequent analysis showed that the effect was heterogeneous,due to the geographical location,administrative level and the state of return to scale of tourism economy for different cities.(3)Further analysis showed that the selection of national civilized cities forced the internalization of negative externalities of tourism,and there was a“crowding out effect”,which hindered the upgrading of the factor structure of tourism.Although the policy promoted the level of green innovation technology in cities,its benefits failed to make up for the opportunity cost,so the overall impact effect was still negative.The findings of this paper were not only conducive to effectively promote the creation of civilized cities across the country,but also provided enlightenments for establishing a civilized city and promoting the high-quality development of tourism economy simultaneously.

关 键 词：全国文明城市 旅游经济高质量发展 全要素生产率 多期渐进DID模型 SBM-Malmquist模型 

分 类 号：F592.0[经济管理—旅游管理]