基于区域历史回归法的成都地区人工增雨效果检验  

Effect evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement in Chengdu based on regional historical regression method

作　　者：张义 孙根厚 严晓强 ZHANG Yi;SUN Genhou;YAN Xiaoqiang(Chengdu Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610000,China;Chengdu Weather Modification Center of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610000,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Zhuhai 519000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省成都市气象局,四川成都610000 [2]四川省成都市人工影响天气中心,四川成都610000 [3]南方海洋科学与工程广东实验室,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2022年第4期640-645,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42175085);成都市气象局科研课题(2021-2)共同资助。

摘　　要：为了评估成都市人工增雨作业效果,采用区域历史回归统计方法,对成都地区2011—2019年冬半年人工增雨效果进行统计检验。结果表明:成都市冬半年平均各月增雨量为0.14~3.53 mm,相对增雨率为2.14%~32.14%,其中2月和11月增雨效果最佳,平均绝对增雨量分别为2.74 mm和3.53 mm,平均相对增雨率分别为32.14%和28.06%,而1月增雨效果最差。近9 a冬半年累计人工增雨量为88.8 mm,多年平均为9.9 mm,相对增雨率为19.06%,增雨效果显著。这对科学开展成都地区飞机增雨作业、提高增雨效率有指导作用。In order to evaluate operation effect of artificial precipitation enhancement in Chengdu.The regional historical regression statistical method was applied to test the effect of artificial precipitation enhancement in Chengdu in winter half-year from 2011 to 2019.The results show that the average absolute increments of precipitation in each month of winter half year ranged from 0.14 to 3.53 mm,and the relative precipitation increase ranged from 2.14%to 32.14%.The effect of precipitation enhancement was best in February and November,average absolute increments of precipitation was 2.74 mm and 3.53 mm,and the relative precipitation increase reached 32.14%and 28.06%,respectively.The precipitation enhancement effect in January was poor.The accumulated absolute incre⁃ment of precipitation of winter half-year in the past 9 years in Chengdu was 88.8 mm,the annual average value was 9.9 mm,and the relative precipitation increase was 19.06%.Evaluating the artificial precipitation enhancement effect in Chengdu play a guiding role on how to scientifically carry out aircraft precipitation enhancement operation and improve precipitation enhancement efficiency.

关 键 词：人工增雨 区域历史回归法 绝对增雨量 相对增雨率 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]