中国陆地平均降水量与空中水汽含量的统计关系分析  

Statistical relationship between average precipitation and air water vapor content in China

作　　者：檀成龙 檀佳 TAN Chenglong;TAN Jia(Zhuhai Public Security Bureau of Guangdong Province,Zhuhai 519070,Guangdong,China;Zhuhai Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Province,Zhuhai 519000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省珠海市公安局,广东珠海519070 [2]广东省珠海市供电局,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2022年第4期710-719,共10页Journal of Arid Meteorology

摘　　要：中国陆地的多年平均降水量和空中水汽含量都是从东南沿海向西北内陆递减,二者存在很好的空间相似性,研究二者之间的拟合关系,就有可能发现比较好的统计规律,找到空中水汽对多年平均降水量影响研究的突破口。基于这种空间相似性,对中国121个探空站1971—2000年平均降水量(P)与空中水汽含量(W)的研究发现,两者高度正相关,拟合公式为P=44.385(W-2.66),R^(2)=0.8293。对累年各月平均降水量与空中水汽含量的研究发现,两者也是高度正相关,以上成果通过了复核验证。空中水汽含量乘以研究区域面积是空中水汽的存量,即空中水汽折算的液态容量。多年平均降水量的影响因素很多,拟合公式忽略了次要因素,找到了主要影响因素,即空中水汽存量,它的量化参数是空中水汽含量。当空中水汽含量大于等于14 mm时,所有站点的多年平均降水量均大于等于400 mm,多年平均空中水汽含量大于等于14 mm是多年平均降水量大于等于400 mm的充分不必要条件。The air water vapor content and annual precipitation in China decrease from southeast coast to northwest inland,and there is a good spatial similarity between them.By studying the fitting relationship between them,it is possible to find a good statistical law and a breakthrough in the study of influence of air water vapor content on annual average precipitation.Based on this spatial similarity,the average precipitation(P)and air water vapor content(W)of 121 sounding stations from 1971 to 2000 in China were studied and the fitting formula between them was found,namely P=44.385(W-2.66),with a highly positive correlation between the two,R2=0.8293.Fur⁃ther,the study on monthly average precipitation and air water vapor content over the years found a high positive correlation between the two,and the above results passed the review and verification.Air water vapor content W multiplied by the study area is the stock of air water vapor,namely the liquid volume converted from air water vapor.There are many factors affecting annual average precipitation.The minor influencing factors were ignored and the main influencing factor was found in the fitting formula.It is the stock of air water vapor,and its quantitative parameter is the air water vapor content W.The study also found that when the air water vapor content is equal to or more than 14 mm,the annual average precipitation of all stations would be equal to or more than 400 mm.The annual aver⁃age water vapor content equal to or more than 14 mm is a sufficient and unnecessary condition for the average annual precipitation equal to or more than 400 mm.

关 键 词：多年平均降水量 空中水汽含量 大气可降水量 拟合公式 跨流域调水 干旱气候 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]