基于多模式预报优选融合技术的短时定量降水预报  

Short-term quantitative precipitation forecast based on optimization fusion technology of multi-model forecasts

作　　者：曹勇 张恒德 郭云谦[1] 包红军 徐成鹏 赵威[1] CAO Yong;ZHANG Hengde;GUO Yunqian;BAO Hongjun;XU Chengpeng;ZHAO Wei(National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;CMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for Hydrometeorological studies,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局-河海大学水文气象研究联合实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第5期10-15,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508102,2017YFC1502000);中国气象局气象业务技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2020)3A-02);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z009);国家自然科学基金(41775111,41875131)。

摘　　要：为提升短时定量降水预报准确率,使其更好地支撑城市暴雨洪涝及中小河流洪水预报,基于多源数值天气模式预报值,构建了基于预报成员优选融合的短时(0~12 h)逐小时定量降水预报模型,模型由单模式百分位映射订正技术模块、模式订正预报成员实时优选技术模块、预报成员实时融合技术模块和融合预报的百分位映射订正技术模块4个技术模块组成。以河南省为例对模型进行检验,结果表明:模型预报降水分布和强度随着预报时效临近更接近实况降水;模型提前6 h预报出郑州“7·20”暴雨最强时段降水的落区和强度;在2021年1—9月降水预报对比检验中,模型预报准确率高于任意单模式订正预报和原始模式预报,且准确率随着预报时效的临近逐步提高。Accurate short-term precipitation forecasts are an important basis for improving the capacities for the forecasting of urban rainstorms,urban floods,and small and medium-sized river floods,and disaster risk prevention and control.In order to improve the accuracy of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPF),a short-term(0-12 h)QPF model based on the optimization fusion method of multi-model forecasts is developed.The developed model system mainly includes four modules:a single model-based quantile mapping correction module,a real-time optimization module based on model forecasts correction,a real-time fusion module of optimized forecasts and quantile mapping correction module of fused forecasts.By taking the Henan Province as a test region,the developed model is applied and tested for the short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting.The results show that the developed model performs well,and the distribution and intensity of the precipitation forecasts using the new approach are much closer to the observations than the traditional methods;the developed model forecast is able to forecast the precipitation intensity and its cover area of the“7·20”rainstorm in Zhengzhou for 6 hours in advance;the forecasting accuracy of the developed model is much higher than the other traditional models through the intercomparing of rainfall predictions from January to September,2021,and the forecasting accuracy increases gradually as the forecasting lead-time approaches the rainfall event.

关 键 词：短时定量降水预报 多数值模式预报 成员优选 最优融合 河南省 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]