面板堆石坝水平位移监测统计模型  

Statistical model for horizontal displacement monitoring of concrete faced rockfill dam

作　　者：沈扬 李明昊 任秋兵 李明超[2] SHEN Yang;LI Minghao;REN Qiubing;LI Mingchao(China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,北京摇100038 [2]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津摇300350

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第5期89-97,共9页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51879185,52179139);湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室开放基金(2020KSD06)。

摘　　要：针对目前面板堆石坝的水平位移统计分析中缺少考虑温度分量的问题,以Boussinesq解为假设基础推导了水压分量表达式,得出坝体典型断面处的水平位移与库水位一次方成正比的结论。以Merchant流变模型为基础推导了时效分量表达式,并建立了带有周期项非单调增加的时效关系,加入了以实测温度表示的温度分量表达式,建立了修正的面板堆石坝体内部水平位移MHTT统计模型。工程实例验证结果表明,MHTT模型解释数据的能力优于HTT模型和HT-JU模型,对面板堆石坝水平位移的物理机制阐释能力较强。In view of the lack of considering the temperature component in the statistical analysis of the horizontal displacement of the concrete faced rockfill dam(CFRD),the water pressure component is derived from the Boussinesq solution and it has been proved that the horizontal displacement in the typical section of the dam is directly proportional to the reservoir water level.The expression of the aging component is derived based on the Merchant rheological model,the aging relationship of the periodic non-monotonic increase of rock fill is established and the temperature component is added by the form of measured temperature.Thereafter,a modified hydrostatic thermal time(MHTT)model is proposed as the statistical model of internal horizontal displacement of CFRDs.The results of a case study show that the MHTT model has not only a better data interpretation ability than the HTT model and HT-JU model,but also a strong ability to interpret the physical mechanism of horizontal displacement of CFRDs.

关 键 词：面板堆石坝 安全监控 统计模型 水平位移 偏最小二乘回归 

分 类 号：TV641.4[水利工程—水利水电工程]