气候变化与登山旅游——基于游客大数据的分析与模拟  

Climate Change and Mountaineering:Analysis and Simulation Based on Tourist Big Data

作　　者：刘俊[1] 杨璐瑜 王胜宏 陈佳淇 LIU Jun;YANG Luyu;WANG Shenghong;CHEN Jiaqi(Tourism School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学旅游学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2022年第9期141-154,共14页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“四川植物观赏旅游时令时空格局对气候变化的响应与人类适应研究”(41771163);四川省社科规划年度项目“基于大数据的四川旅游国际舆情监测与舆情风险防控”(SC20B047);四川大学“从0到1”创新研究项目“基于大数据的我国旅游舆情风险动态监测、智能分析与模拟预测研究”(2021CXC16);四川大学区域历史与边疆学学科群项目共同资助。

摘　　要：旅游应对气候变化亟须展开大尺度的针对特定旅游活动的科学研究予以支撑。文章利用2010—2019年共计167253条中国登山旅游者行为大数据,采用广义可加模型和分段回归模型结合的混合方法,揭示了登山旅游活动对气候变化的响应关系,测度了关键阈值,并在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5两种气候情景下模拟分析了2050年及2080年气候变化对登山活动的影响。研究结果显示,登山活动时长与气象因子间呈现具有阈值效应的非线性关系,日最高温约18℃~28℃,相对湿度约50%~80%,日照时间约2~9小时时适合登山活动开展。气候变化将对未来的中国登山旅游活动产生负面影响,RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5下,研究城市中超过90%的城市的登山活动时长会出现缩短,2050年和2080年的登山活动时长均值下降均超过9%。Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the tourism industry in the 21st century,affecting the development of different types of tourism activities.Large-scale research specific to different types of tourism activities should be conducted to seek scientific evidence for the tourism industry to respond effectively to climate change.Mountaineering,a popular tourism activity worldwide,is very sensitive to climate change;However,its impact mechanism and potential future effects have not been thoroughly studied.Exploring the impact of climate change on mountaineering needs the support of large-scale,high-resolution,and long-time series of targeted data.Big data supporting tourism,generated via various equipment,have solid pertinence,authenticity,and reliability and can be used as an important data source.Moreover,it is also necessary to develop the appropriate methods to measure the comprehensive impact of climate change on mountaineering and further explore the potential implications in the future.Thus,this study introduces a research framework that uses tourist-generated big data and applies a hybrid method of the generalized additive model and segmented regression model to quantitatively measure the response of tourism activities to climate change.By applying this framework,the study estimates the response relationship between mountaineering participation and climate change and assesses the critical threshold,using a total of 167253 mountaineering data from2010 to 2019.Additionally,mountaineering participation situations during 2050 and 2080 are simulated under the climate scenario of representative concentration pathway(RCP)4.5 and RCP 8.5 to further reveal the potential effect of climate change.The results show that the relationship between mountaineering duration and climate factors is nonlinear with threshold effects.Temperatures below17.8℃or over 28.5℃,relative humidity lower than 49.3%or higher than 79.4%,and very long(9hours)or very short(1.8 hours)sunshine durations are not ideal for moun

关 键 词：气候变化 登山旅游 山地旅游 广义可加模型 分段回归模型 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]