2021年世界油气勘探形势分析与思考  

Analysis of the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021

作　　者：窦立荣[1,2] 温志新 王建君[1] 王兆明[1] 贺正军[1] 刘小兵[1] 张宁宁[1] DOU Lirong;WEN Zhixin;WANG Jianjun;WANG Zhaoming;HE Zhengjun;LIU Xiaobing;ZHANG Ningning(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司,北京100034

出　　处：《石油勘探与开发》2022年第5期1033-1044,共12页Petroleum Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“全球重点领域超前选区选带研究”(2021DJ3101);中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“全球海域重点盆地风险勘探领域评价与区块优选技术研究”(2022-FW-041)。

摘　　要：基于埃士信能源咨询公司(IHS)等商业数据库及油公司公开信息,对2021年全球勘探投资、油气新发现、油公司勘探业务调整策略、未来有利勘探领域等方面进行了系统分析。结果表明:2021年世界油气勘探形势依然延续新冠疫情以来的低迷态势,投资及钻井工作量同比小幅下降,但探井成功率特别是深水探井成功率明显提升,油气新发现储量同比略有增加;海域被动陆缘盆地深水仍为常规大中型油气田发现的主战场,陆上富油气盆地深层常规油气精细勘探依然延续良好态势,沙特、俄罗斯等多个国家致密油气及页岩油气勘探有新的发现;国际、国家及独立石油公司均在加大本土资源勘探开发力度的同时,利用自身优势持续聚焦境外深水、天然气等核心领域;全球海域深水、陆上深层和非常规油气3大领域是未来有利油气勘探方向。建议中国油公司跨国勘探业务:①通过投标超前低成本进入全球深水前沿盆地,发现规模油气后采用“双勘探模式”经营;②通过参股等多种方式进入全球新兴热点盆地未钻区块,快速发现规模油气田;③以联合研究形式与资源国国家石油公司合作,积极进入陆上富油气盆地深层;④重点关注沙特、俄罗斯等国家致密油气及页岩油气勘探合作机会,利用国内成熟理论技术优势择机进入。The global exploration investment, new oil and gas discoveries, exploration business adjustment strategies of oil companies in 2021, and future favorable exploration domains are systematically analyzed using commercial databases such as IHS and public information of oil companies. It is found that the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021 has continued the downturn since the outbreak of COVID-19, the investment and drilling workload decreased slightly, but the success rate of exploration wells, especially deep-water exploration wells, increased significantly, and the newly discovered reserves increased slightly compared with last year. Deep waters of the passive continental margin basins are still the main sites for conventional large and medium-sized oil and gas fields discovered.The conventional oil and gas exploration in deep formations of onshore petroliferous basins has been keeping a good state, with tight/shale oil and gas discoveries made in Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries. While strengthening the exploration and development of local resources, national, international and independent oil companies have been focusing on exploration of overseas major frontiers by making use of their own advantages, including risk exploration in deep waters and natural gas. Future favorable exploration directions in the three major frontiers, the global deep waters, onshore deep formations and unconventional resources have been clarified. Four suggestions are put forward for the transnational exploration business of Chinese oil companies: first, farm in global deepwater frontier basins in advance through bidding at a low cost, and adopt the “dual exploration model” after making large scale discoveries;second, enter unexplored blocks of emerging hot basins in the world through farm-in and other ways, to quickly find large oil and gas fields;third, cooperate with national oil companies of the resource host countries in the form of joint research and actively participate exploration of onshore deep format

关 键 词：油气勘探投资 勘探形势 勘探新发现 有利勘探领域 跨国油气勘探 深水 深层 非常规油气 

分 类 号：TE122.2[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]