鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口水位影响的量化分析  

Quantitative analysis of influence of converge jacking in Lake Poyang on the water level in Hankou Section of Yangtze River

作　　者：张明月[1,3] 邓鹏鑫 王磊之[1] 邴建平 张冬冬 程小翠 Zhang Mingyue;Deng Pengxin;Wang Leizhi;Bing Jianping;Zhang Dongdong;Cheng Xiaocui(Key Laboratory of Flood&Drought Disaster Defense,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,P.R.China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,P.R.China;Hubei Provincial and Water Resources Emergency Monitoring Center,Wuhan 430000,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室,南京210029 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010 [3]湖北省水文水资源应急监测中心,武汉430000

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2022年第5期1712-1722,共11页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室开放基金项目(KYFB202112060041);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400901)联合资助。

摘　　要：为定量评估汇流顶托对水位变化的影响,本文从水文过程仿真及顶托响应评价入手,提出了一种汇流顶托对水位影响的量化分析方法,并以长江汉口江段为例,开展了鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口江段水位影响的量化评价,结果表明:改进提出的长江汉口江段水文仿真模型,经参数优选后确定性系数可达0.98以上,总量相对误差绝对值在3%以内,较好地再现了水文变化过程;通过响应指数定义及水文过程模拟,研制了汉口多值型水位流量关系响应特征曲线,揭示了鄱阳湖与长江水位变化的关联性机制;经2016和2020年洪水实例分析,汉口江段长历时高洪水位主要受长江来水及鄱阳湖汇流顶托共同驱动,二者合力贡献可达83.3%以上,其中鄱阳湖汇流顶托贡献率在35%左右.其余因素(如区间洪水、沿江排涝等)亦助推高洪水位形成,部分时段贡献可达近34.4%.本文提出的顶托量化分析方法,可定量评估因顶托效应引起的水位变化,为解析河段高洪水位成因机制提供了有效的技术支撑.In order to quantitatively evaluate the impact of converge-jacking on water level changes,starting with hydrological process simulation and backwater response evaluation,this study proposes a quantitative method analyzing the effect of converge jacking on water level,and explores the impact of Lake Poyang converge-jacking on the water level of the Hankou Section in Yangtze River.The result shows that the improved hydrological simulation model with parameter optimization can well reproduce the hydrological change process with DC≥0.98 and |RE| <3%.With the definition of response indexes and hydrological process simulation,the Hankou multi-valued water level-discharge relationship and its response characteristic curve were developed,revealing the correlation of water level changes between Lake Poyang and Yangtze River.With the cases of 2016 and 2020 flooding,the longduration high water-level in the Wuhan Section is mainly driven by the inflow of the Yangtze River and the converge support of Lake Poyang,both of which contribute more than 83.3%.Converge jacking of Lake Poyang makes approximately 35% contribution.Other factors(such as interval confluence,drainage along the river etc.) also push the formation of high flood levels,contributing up to 34.4% in some periods.The backwater jacking method proposed can quantitatively evaluate the water level change caused by the jacking effect,and provide effective technical support to examine the causes of forming high-water level.

关 键 词：水位变化 汇流顶托 水位流量关系 量化分析 长江中游 鄱阳湖 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]