考虑病毒变异与疫苗保护的高校疫情风险评估  

Epidemic Risk Assessment in University Considering Virus Mutation and Vaccine Protection

作　　者：范铃铃 刘丹[1,2] 徐宏波 魏永长[4] FAN Lingling;LIU Dan;XU Hongbo;WEI Yongchang(China Research Centre for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [3]武汉理工大学社会合作与校友工作处,湖北武汉430070 [4]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2022年第4期519-525,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD127);国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CTQ022);国家重点研发计划(2021YFF0306000);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(206861003).

摘　　要：针对病毒持续变异背景下高校的疫情风险问题,开展风险评估量化研究。考虑新冠疫苗的预防保护率,从可能性、严重性、敏感性3个维度构建高校新冠肺炎疫情风险指标体系,采用CRITIC法确定指标权重,基于云模型构建考虑疫苗保护率的高校疫情风险评估模型,以武汉某高校为例进行实例分析,验证模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明:不考虑病毒变异因素,根据该校当前所实施的新冠疫情防控措施,其风险评价结果为“极低风险”,而在当前病毒持续变异背景下,该校新冠疫情风险等级将升为“较低风险”,该校应加强新冠疫情防控工作。In response to the epidemic risk of university under the background of the continuous mutation of the virus,quantitative research on risk assessment was carried out.COVID-19 risk index system was constructed from three dimensions of probability,severity,and sensitivity,taking the COVID-19 vaccine preventive protection rate into consideration.The weight of indicators is determined by the CRITIC method.A risk assessment model of university epidemic considering vaccine preventive protection rate was constructed based on cloud model.A case study of a university in Wuhan was conducted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.The results suggested that,The research results show that,Without considering the factors of virus mutation,according to the current prevention and control measures of the new crown epidemic implemented by the university,the risk assessment result is"extremely low risk".To be upgraded to"low risk",the university should strengthen the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎(COVID-19) 风险评估 云模型 疫情防控 疫苗保护 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]