“战略三角”还是“三边互动”:新时代的中美俄关系  

“Strategic Triangle” or “Trilateral Interaction”: Defining China-US-Russia Relations in the New Era

作　　者：毕洪业 Bi Hongye

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学俄罗斯东欧中亚学院,上海200083

出　　处：《国际观察》2022年第3期127-156,共30页International Review

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“乌克兰危机冲击下的俄罗斯与欧洲关系及中国的应对研究”(项目编号:15BGJ052)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：冷战期间,随着中苏关系的破裂,美国推动美、苏、中三方形成了所谓“战略三角”。苏联解体后,战略三角也随着两级格局的终结而退出国际政治舞台。21世纪以来,美国、中国和俄罗斯开始形成新型三角关系。由力量对比、地缘政治及价值观推动的中美关系、中俄关系、俄美关系的态势和互动成为影响国际格局演变的最重要变量。乌克兰危机爆发后,国际关系再次回归地缘政治思维的趋势更加明显。与之相应,中美俄三边关系也在加速调整,基本形成了中俄合作应对美国“双遏制”的态势。本文认为,进入新时代的中美俄关系,不会是“战略三角”,而是“三边互动”。俄乌冲突的背后是俄罗斯与美国为首的西方世界的地缘政治和意识形态对抗,其对中美俄三边关系乃至世界秩序将产生深远影响。During the Cold War,with the breakdown of Sino-Soviet relations,the United States promoted to form of the so-called “strategic triangle” among the United States,the Soviet Union and China.With the disintegration of the Soviet Union,the strategic triangle withdrew from the international political stage with the end of the two-tier structure.In the 21st century,with the revival of Russia’s power and the acceleration of China’s rise,a new triangle has been seemingly formed among them,which has become the main junction of the international relations system.The dynamics and interactions of Sino-US relations,Sino-Russian relations and Russia-US relations,driven by power contrast,geopolitics and values,have become the most important variables affecting the evolution of the international pattern.After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,the romantic fantasy of the post-Cold War world completely disappeared,and international relations once again returned to geopolitical thinking.Accordingly,the trilateral relations among China,the United States and Russia have been rapidly adjusted,basically forming a situation of China and Russia cooperating to cope with the “double containment” of the United States.Under the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,it is the geopolitical and ideological confrontation between Russia and the US and the West,which will have a profound impact on the current trilateral relations among China,Russia and the United States and even on the world order.

关 键 词：中美关系 中美俄三边互动 俄乌冲突“战略三角” 大国协调合作 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]