澄碧河流域降水及旱涝变化特征分析  

Analysis of precipitation,drought and flood variability in Chengbi River basin

作　　者：孙桂凯[1,2,3,4] 王熙财 马龙 黄瑞 王蕾[1,2,3,4] 莫崇勋 SUN Guikai;WANG Xicai;MA Long;HUANG Rui;WANG Lei;MO Chongxun(School of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Key Laboratory of Engineering Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Engineering Research Centre for Water Safety and Intelligent Regulation in Karst Areas of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,南宁530004 [2]广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,南宁530004 [3]广西大学广西壮族自治区岩溶区水安全与智慧调控工程研究中心,南宁530004 [4]广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,南宁530004

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2022年第9期56-66,共11页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学资金项目(51969004);广西自然科学基金项目(2017GXNSFAA198361);广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCBZ2019022)。

摘　　要：为了解西南岩溶区流域的降水及旱涝变化特征,选用澄碧河流域1979—2019年12个地面站点实测逐月降水资料,采用Sen斜率估计法、小波周期分析、经验正交函数(EOF)分析及标准化降水指数(SPI)等方法进行分析。结果表明,41 a间澄碧河流域年降水量呈现不显著增加趋势,以30 a为主周期;降水主要分布在夏季,并且呈不显著变化;降水量整体上呈现出由东南向西北递增的格局。EOF分析发现流域呈现出三种降水模式,其主要以全流域降水变化一致为主,其余两种模式均呈现出相反的降水变化。澄碧河流域干旱事件向洪涝事件转变发生在1994年,流域洪涝发生频率大于干旱发生频率,旱涝事件变化在空间上的分布特征具有一定差异性。研究结果对流域防范旱涝灾害具有参考意义。To understand the characteristics of variations in precipitation,drought and flood over a karst basin in Southwest China are examined on the basis of the 1979-2019 data series of monthly precipitation at 12 ground stations in the Chengbi River basin,using methods of the Sen’s slope estimation,wavelet cycle analysis,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis,and standardized precipitation index(SPI).The results show that in this basin,its annual precipitation presented a nonsignificant increasing trend over 41 years with the main period of 30 a;its precipitation was concentrated in summer showing nonsignificant changes;and an overall pattern of increase from southeast to northwest.EOF analysis reveals three precipitation patterns in the basin:consistent variation across the basin that is dominant,and the other two showing opposite trends.In the basin,a change from drought events to flood events occurred in 1994,resulting in its frequency of floods higher than its frequency of droughts;the spatial distribution characteristics of its drought and flood events changes are somewhat variable.The results are useful to the basin's precaution and preparation against drought and flood events.

关 键 词：降水 旱涝 经验正交函数分析 标准化降水指数 澄碧河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S42[农业科学—植物保护]