基于四系统估计量的人口普查净覆盖误差估计  

Net Census Coverage Error Estimation Based on Four System Estimator

作　　者：胡桂华 迟璐婕 HU Guihua;CHI Lujie(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Key Laboratory of Economic and Social Applied Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,经济社会应用统计重庆市重点实验室,重庆400067

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2022年第7期1910-1928,共19页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：2021年国家社科基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文一般项目(21FTJB002)资助课题。

摘　　要：针对当今人口普查净覆盖误差估计领域所使用的双系统估计量内含交互作用偏差和尚未投入使用的三系统估计量未有效使用人口行政记录的问题,以四系统估计量为研究目标.为实现目标,采取文献解读法、抽样估计法和现场调查法,研究4次捕获模型、全面登记的四系统估计量和抽样登记的四系统估计量.研究表明:四系统估计量须在等概率人口层建立及使用,否则产生异质性偏差;构造四系统估计量应该分两步进行,首先构造全面登记的四系统估计量,然后使用双重扩张估计量构造全面登记的四系统估计量的子总体指标的估计量,以得到抽样登记的四系统估计量;分层刀切抽样方差估计量适合于近似计算抽样登记的四系统估计量及净覆盖误差的抽样方差.研究价值在于,四系统估计量有望应用于政府统计部门未来的净覆盖误差估计.Aiming at the problems that the dual-system estimator used in the field of census net coverage error estimation contains interaction bias and the triple-system estimator that has not been put into use does not use population administrative records effectively,the research objective is the four-system estimator.In order to achieve the goal,the literature interpretation method,sampling estimation method,and field survey method are adopted to study the four-capture model,the four-system estimator with complete enumerations and the four-system estimator with sample enumerations.Research shows that the four-system estimator must be established and used in the equal probability population strata,otherwise heterogeneity bias will occur;Constructing the four-system estimator should be done in two steps,first constructing the four-system estimator with complete enumerations,and then using the doubleexpansion estimator to construct the estimator for the sub-population indicators of the four-system estimator with complete enumerations to obtain the four-system estimator with sample enumerations;The stratified jack-knife sampling variance estimator is suitable for calculating the sampling variance of the four-system estimator and net census coverage error approximately.The research value is that the four-system estimator is expected to be applied to the government statistics department’s future net coverage error estimation.

关 键 词：政府统计 抽样调查 4次捕获模型 等概率人口层 分层刀切法 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] C924.25[理学—数学]