双循环的贸易分工逻辑与经济效益  

The Trade Division Logic and Economic Benefits of the“Dual Circulation”

作　　者：宋德勇[1] 文泽宙 SONG Deyong;WEN Zezhou(Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,430074

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第7期51-69,共19页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“环境保护与经济高质量发展融合的机制、路径和政策体系研究”(18ZDA050)。

摘　　要：本文基于新兴古典经济学分工理论,通过建立一个内生和外生比较优势并存的理论模型,以超边际分析方法探讨了双循环贸易结构的形成机制及其经济效益,并结合中国经验展开实证分析。理论研究表明,交易效率持续提高是引起一国贸易分工结构从“封闭式结构”向“以国际循环为主结构”演进,再过渡到“以国内循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进结构”的核心驱动力量;技术进步和人口规模扩大在推动传统贸易结构向双循环贸易结构跃迁中同样扮演着重要角色;此外,贸易分工演进将显著提高人均真实收入、优化要素配置、拓宽市场容量。稳健的实证检验证实了上述命题。进一步分析发现,由交易效率提升诱发的分工演进在推动贸易结构转型升级过程中存在非线性效应。本文的结论和发现为科学认识和加快构建新发展格局提供了一个全新的分析框架。Based on the theory of division of labor in the New Classical Economics,this paper establishes a theoretical model in which endogenous and exogenous comparative advantages coexist,and uses the inframarginal analysis to explore the formation mechanism and economic benefits of the trade structure under the dual circulation,and carry out empirical tests with Chinese experience.Theoretical research shows that the improvement of transaction efficiency is the core driving force that leads to the evolution of the country’s trade division structure from the closed structure to the international circulation as the main structure and finally to the mainly domestic circulation while taking into account the international circulation structure.Moreover,technological progress and population expansion also play an important role in promoting the transition from the traditional trade structure to the dual-cycle trade structure.In addition,the evolution of trade division will significantly increase the per capita real income,optimize the allocation of productive factors,and broaden the market capacity.Robust empirical tests confirms the above propositions,and further analysis finds that the evolution of the division of labor induced by the increase in transaction efficiency has a nonlinear effect in the process of promoting the transformation and upgrading of the trade structure.The conclusions and findings of this paper provide a new analytical framework for scientific understanding and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern of“dual circulation”.

关 键 词：双循环 贸易结构 分工演进 交易效率 技术进步 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]