宁波市气象因素与空气污染对死亡影响的交互作用研究  

Study on the interaction between meteorological factors and air pollution on death in Ningbo city

作　　者：杜冰倩 任志强 夏云 陈青松 李永红[2] 姚孝元[2] 张玺 胡秀文 韩雪 DU Bing-qian;REN Zhi-qiang;XIA Yun;CHEN Qing-song;LI Yong-hong;YAO Xiao-yuan;ZHANG Xi;HU Xiu-wen;HAN Xue(School of Public Health,Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510310,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]广东药科大学公共卫生学院,广东广州510310 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100021 [3]广东省公共卫生检测与评估工程技术研究中心,广东广州510310

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第16期2886-2892,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项项目(2017FY101200)。

摘　　要：目的探讨宁波市气象因素与空气污染交互作用对居民死亡的影响,为相关部门制定减少气象因素与空气污染对人群健康危害的措施提供科学依据。方法使用宁波市2014—2018年死因及环境监测数据,对气象因素、空气污染物和死亡人数进行相关分析,运用分布式滞后非线性模型(DLNM)估计空气污染及气象因素对死亡的影响,利用超额相对风险(RERI)来评估它们之间潜在的交互作用。结果2014—2018年期间宁波市非意外总死亡共188039例,日平均气温为17.5℃,大气NO_(2)日平均浓度39.2μg/m^(3),PM2.5日平均浓度39.7μg/m^(3)。基础模型拟合结果显示,在对居民每日非意外死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和循环系统疾病死亡中,日平均气温和NO_(2)之间均存在明显的协同交互作用,其RERI值及95%值CI分别为0.66(0.53~1.02)、1.50(0.95~2.96)和2.50(1.20~6.84),而日平均气温与PM2.5仅在对居民每日非意外总死亡及呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响中存在拮抗交互作用,其RERI值及95%值CI分别为-0.29(0.00~-0.63),-0.61(-0.09~-1.31),差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论日平均气温对NO_(2)、PM2.5的死亡效应可能存在修饰作用,且在不同类型的疾病死亡中表现不同。Objective To explore the effect of the interaction between meteorological factors and air pollution on death of residents in Ningbo city of China,and to provide scientific basis for relevant departments to take measures to reduce the harm of meteorological factors and air pollution to people’s health.Methods Using the cause of death and environmental monitoring data of Ningbo city from 2014 to 2018,we performed correlation analysis of meteorological factors,air pollutants and deaths,estimated the effects of air pollution and meteorological factors on deaths using distributed lagged nonlinear model(DLNM),and assessed their potential interactions using relative excess risk due to interaction(RERI).Results A total of 188039 total non-accidental deaths were recorded in Ningbo during 2014 and 2018,with a daily average temperature of 17.5℃,a daily average atmospheric NO_(2) concentration of 39.2μg/m^(3) and a daily average PM2.5 concentration of 39.7μg/m^(3).The fitting results of the basic model showed that there was an obvious synergistic interaction between the average temperature and NO_(2) in the non-accidental death of residents,the death of respiratory diseases,and death of circulatory diseases,and the RERIs and the 95%CIs were 0.66(0.53 to 1.02),1.50(0.95 to 2.96),and 2.50(1.20 to 6.84),respectively.While the average temperature and PM2.5 only had an antagonistic interaction on the daily total non-accidental death and respiratory disease death of residents,and the RERIs and the 95%CIs were-0.29(0.00 to-0.63)and-0.61(-0.09 to-1.31),respectively,with statistically significant difference(P<0.05).Conclusion Daily mean air temperature might modify the effects of NO_(2) and PM2.5 on mortality,which varies by different disease types causing mortality.

关 键 词：气象因素 空气污染 居民 死亡 交互作用 

分 类 号：R181.34[医药卫生—流行病学] X513[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]