太湖蓝藻水华年度情势的预测方法研究  

Study on forecast method of cyanobacterial bloom annual situation in Lake Taihu

作　　者：朱广伟[1] 辛华荣 李未[1] 刘俊杰[2] 邹伟 秦伯强[1] ZHU Guangwei;XIN Huarong;LI Wei;LIU Junjie;ZOU Wei;QIN Boqiang(Taihu Laboratory for Lake Ecosystem Research,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所太湖湖泊生态系统研究站,江苏南京210008 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《江苏水利》2022年第9期6-10,共5页Jiangsu Water Resources

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2020004);中国科学院野外站联盟项目(KFJ-SW-YW036)。

摘　　要：基于太湖近20年蓝藻水华情势及相关环境因子的监测资料,采用多元回归分析法,构建了太湖春季(3—5月)、水华季(3—11月)蓝藻水华强度与冬季藻种情况、气象与水文因子、营养盐状况等环境因子的统计关系模型,利用该模型能够有效实施太湖蓝藻水华季度及年度情势预测分析,为类似湖库的蓝藻水华灾害防控提供技术支撑。Based on the monitoring data of cyanobacterial bloom situation and related environmental factors in Lake Taihu in the past 20 years,using multiple regression analysis,the multiple statistical relationship between spring bloom intensity(March-May)or bloom-season’s bloom intensity(March-November)and the major control factors,such as winter phytoplankton condition,meteorological condition,hydrological condition and nutrient background,was built.The use of this model can effectively implement the seasonal and annual forecast and analysis of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu,and provide technical support for the prevention and control of cyanobacterial bloom disasters similar to lakes and reservoirs.

关 键 词：太湖 蓝藻水华 风险预测 多元回归模型 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]