Heavy Precipitation over the Jing–Jin–Ji Region in Early October: What Controls Its Interannual Variability?  

作　　者：Jing FENG Tim LI Ji WANG Linna ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate andEnvironmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC–FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Beijing Meteorological Information Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089,China [3]International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu,Hawaii 96822,USA [4]Beijing Municipal Climate Center,Beijing 100089,China [5]Beijing Meteorological Observatory,Beijing 100089,China

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2022年第4期586-600,共15页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42088101 and 41875074);China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(CXFZ2021J030 and CXFZ2021J046);Beijing Meterological Service Science and Technology Project(BMBKJ 201901031);Climate Change Special Fund of China Meteorological Administration(202009).

摘　　要：Heavy regional precipitation(HRP)over Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Province(the Jing–Jin–Ji region or JJJ)in early October(1–10 October)is a high-impact climate event because of travel and outdoor activities by exceptionally large population during the Chinese National Day Holidays(CNDH).What causes the year-to-year variation of the HRP during early October is investigated through an observational analysis.It is found that the HRP arises from moisture transport by southerly anomalies to the west of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the subtropical northwestern Pacific(SNWP).Sensitivity numerical experiments reveal that the low-level anticyclonic anomaly is caused by a dipole heating pattern over tropical western and central Pacific associated with a La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)pattern in the Pacific and by a negative heating anomaly over North Europe.The latter connects the SNWP anticyclone through a Rossby wave train.Anomalous ascent associated with a positive heating anomaly over the tropical western Pacific may strengthen the local Hadley Cell,contributing to maintenance of the low-level anomalous anticyclone over SNWP and extending westwards of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Therefore,both the tropical Pacific and midlatitude heating signals over North Europe may be potential predictors for HRP forecast in the JJJ region in early October.

关 键 词：heavy regional precipitation(HRP)in Jing–Jin–Ji(JJJ) Beijing Tianjin and Hebei Province water vapor(WV)transport Rossby wave train diabatic heating anomalies La Niña-like SST anomaly 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]