2015-2020年河南省四类慢性病早死概率及“健康中国2030”指标达标分析  

Probability of premature death caused by four chronic diseases during 2015-2020 and achievement of goal of“Healthy China 2030”in Henan

作　　者：李少芳[1] 轩水丽 邢天放 潘盼 秦露伟 杨文杰[1] 康锴[1] 底秀娟[1] Li Shaofang;Xuan Shuili;Xing Tianfang;Pan Pan;Qin Luwei;Yang Wenjie;Kang Kai;Di Xiujuan(Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou 450016,Henan,China;Minhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201199,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心,河南郑州450016 [2]上海市闵行区疾病预防控制中心,上海201199

出　　处：《疾病监测》2022年第7期895-900,共6页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划(No.LHGJ20190689);河南省科技发展计划(No.202102310441)。

摘　　要：目的分析2015—2020年河南省四类慢性病(癌症、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病、慢性呼吸系统疾病)的死亡和早死概率变化情况,探讨实现“健康中国2030”四类慢性病早死概率下降目标的可能性。方法收集整理2015—2020年河南省36个国家级监测点的死亡数据资料,分析粗死亡率、标化死亡率、构成比、早死概率、年度变化百分比(APC)等指标。通过与“健康中国2030”早死概率目标(下降30%)比较,评价实现该目标的可能性。结果2015—2020年河南省四类慢性病死亡人数占总死亡人数的比例由87.67%升高到90.47%,呈上升趋势(APC=0.57%)。总人群、男性、女性的四类慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率均呈上升趋势,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。四类慢性病早死概率分析结果显示,总人群早死概率由2015年的17.98%下降到2020年的17.19%;男性(APC=-0.81%)、女性(APC=-1.45%)、城市(APC=-0.91%)、农村(APC=-0.90%)均呈下降趋势。相同年份早死概率比较,男性约为女性的2倍,农村高于城市。四类慢性病研究结果显示,慢性呼吸系统疾病下降最为明显(APC=-6.81%),其次是心脑血管疾病和癌症,糖尿病呈上升趋势(APC=1.94%)。根据平均下降速度预测,到2030年,除慢性呼吸系统疾病外,四类慢性病早死概率,以及分病种的心脑血管疾病、癌症、糖尿病均难以实现“健康中国2030”目标。结论2015—2020年河南省早死概率呈下降趋势,但难以实现目标。应进一步加强慢性病综合防控工作,开展有针对性的慢性病危险因素干预工作,降低慢性病的早死概率,为顺利实现“健康中国2030”目标努力。Objective To analysis the mortality,probability of premature death and change trends of four chronic diseases(cancer,cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease,diabetes and chronic respiratory disease)in Henan province from 2015 to2020,and evaluate the possibility of achieving the goal of“Healthy China 2030”to reduce the probability of premature death due to chronic diseases.Methods The death data were collected and from 36 death cause surveillance sites in Henan from2015 to 2020.The crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,constituent ratio,probability of premature death,annual percentage change(APC)were calculated.By comparing with the goal of“Healthy China 2030”for premature death reduction(-30%),the possibility of achieving the goal was evaluated.Results From 2015 to 2020,the proportion of the four chronic disease-caused death in total death increased from 87.67%to 90.47%,showing an upward trend(APC=0.57%).The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of the four chronic diseases in total population,men and women all showed upward trends,the differences were significant(P<0.05).The probability of premature death in total population decreased from 17.98%in 2015 to 17.19%in 2020.The probability of premature death in men(APC=-0.81%),women(APC=-1.45%),urban area(APC=-0.91%)and rural area(APC=-0.90%)all showed downward trends.The annual probability of premature death was about 2 times higher in men than in women and higher in rural area than in urban area.The decrease of premature death caused by chronic respiratory diseases was most obvious(APC=-6.81%),followed by that caused by cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease and cancer,but the premature death caused by diabetes increased(APC=1.94%).According to the prediction of the decrease rate,the decreases of the probability of premature death of the four chronic diseases and the probability of premature deaths caused by cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease,cancer and diabetes would not meet the requirements of“Healthy China 2030”by 2030,

关 键 词：慢性病 死亡率 早死概率 健康中国 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R181