基于组合赋权和博弈论的TOD+PPP项目风险研究  

Research on Risk Sharing of TOD+PPP Project Based on Combination Weighting+Game Theory

作　　者：高升 王齐荣[1] 赵笑然 李茂 钱海啸 GAO Sheng;WANG Qirong;ZHAO Xiaoran;LI Mao;QIAN Haixiao(School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong Lniversity,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学土木工程学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《铁道建筑技术》2022年第9期37-41,178,共6页Railway Construction Technology

基　　金：2020年西南交通大学个性化实验项目(GX2020010005)。

摘　　要：为合理分配TOD+PPP项目的风险因素比例,从政治与法律风险、经济风险、建设风险、经营风险四方面选取政府诚信、审批延误、通货膨胀、设计变更等12项参数构建风险因素综合评价排序体系。基于改进AHP-熵权法组合赋权法,充分考虑专家意见和自身含蕴信息,量化并求出各风险因素权重。在TOD+PPP项目中由于政府和合作部门在利益诉求及两者追求目标的差异很容易引起风险的偏好不同,然而不对称的地位和先后的策略抉择次序会导致不一样的比例分担结果。所以针对在TOD+PPP模式下轨道交通建设项目中政府与合作方在风险分担时难以进行系统性分配风险比例问题,提出基于讨价还价动态博弈理论模型,在双方无法对彼此信息完全了解情况下,经过讨价还价博弈,最终得到双方均满意的合作方案。In order to reasonably allocate the proportion of risk factors in TOD+PPP projects,12 parameters including government integrity,approval delays,inflation,and design changes were selected from four aspects:political and legal risks,economic risks,construction risks,and business risks to construct a comprehensive evaluation ranking system of risk factors.Based on the improved AHP-entropy weighting method combined weighting method,the weight of each risk factor was quantified and calculated by fully considering expert opinions and self-imposed information.In the TOD+PPP project,due to the difference in interest demands and the goals pursued by the government and cooperative departments,it is easy to cause different risk preferences.However,the asymmetric status and sequential strategic decision sequence will lead to different proportional sharing results.Therefore,in the TOD+PPP mode,it is difficult for the government and the partner to systematically allocate the risk ratio in the risk sharing of the rail transit construction project under the TOD+PPP model.A theoretical model based on the bargaining dynamic game theory was proposed.The bargaining game ultimately resulted in a cooperation plan that was satisfactory to both parties.

关 键 词：TOD PPP AHP 风险分担 熵权法 讨价还价 博弈论 

分 类 号：F294.3[经济管理—国民经济]