基于肥尾效应的热带气旋迅速增强和路径突变研究  

Rapid Intensification and Path Mutation of Tropical Cyclone Based on Fat Tail

作　　者：顾天红 许可 杨静 张艳梅 李阳 GU Tianhong;XU Ke;YANG Jing;ZHANG Yanmei;LI Yang(Guizhou Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Meteorological Service Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Qianxinan Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province,Xingyi 562400,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象台,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省气象服务中心,贵州贵阳550002 [3]贵州省黔西南布依族苗族自治州气象局,贵州兴义562400

出　　处：《中低纬山地气象》2022年第4期51-55,共5页Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2020]03-08号):西南区域暴雨过程中探空物理量的阈值初探;贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2020]12-03号):V-3θ图在贵州冰雹天气中的特征检验及适用性分析。

摘　　要：从KOWCH and EMANUEL(2015)的结论“热带气旋的快速增强过程并无特殊物理机制在起作用”出发,利用JTWC西北太平洋TC最佳路径数据集(best track)和3种不同积云对流参数化方案模拟的数据资料对西北太平洋上热带气旋的强度变化和路径偏折进行研究分析,进行重新验证,得出以下结论:①决定TC的迅速增强过程和非快速增强过程的物理机制是有差异的;②肥尾效应在TC路径突变中比TC在迅速增强中更明显;③不同对流参数化方案对TC的强度变化模拟不同,其中KFMT方案模拟效果最好,KF方案次之,SAS方案最差。但无论是KF、KFMT还是SAS方案,对TC强度迅速增强的模拟能力都很弱,在减弱阶段均能较好模拟;④3种方案对TC路径偏折的模拟都较好,两端皆有较明显的肥尾现象,表明TC的路径突变确实是有特殊物理机制在起作用。Based on the conclusion of KOWCH and EMANUEL(2015)that"there is no special physical mechanism in the process of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones",the intensity changes and track deflection of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean were studied and analyzed.Using the JTWC TC Best Track dataset over the Northwest Pacific and the simulated data of three different cumulus convective parameterization schemes,the work is reverified.The following conclusions are drawn:①the physical mechanism of TC rapid enhancement is different from that of non-rapid enhancement;②Fat-tail effect is more obvious in TC path mutation than in TC rapid enhancement.③Different convective parameterization schemes simulate different TC intensity changes,and KFMT scheme has the best simulation effect,followed by KF scheme and SAS scheme.However,no matter KF,KFMT or SAS scheme,the simulation ability of TC strength rapidly increasing is very weak,and can be well simulated in the weakening stage.④The three schemes simulate the TC path deflection well,and the fat tail phenomenon is obvious at both ends,indicating that the TC path mutation really has a special physical mechanism.

关 键 词：热带气旋 肥尾效应 迅速增强 路径突变 对流参数化 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]