蒙古扁桃在内蒙古的潜在地理分布及未来适生区预测  

Potential geographic distribution and prediction of future habitat of Amygdalus mongolica in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：郝瑞敏 贺晓慧[1,2,3] 朱丽 谢婧妍[1] 张秀凤 HAO Rui-min;HE Xiao-hui;ZHU Li;XIE Jing-yan;ZHANG Xiu-feng(Resource and Environmental Engineering College,Baotou Teachers’College,Baotou 014030,Inner Mongolia,China;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Yabulai Management Station of Badain Jilin Nature Reserve,Alashan 737300,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]包头师范学院资源与环境学院,内蒙古包头014030 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,兰州730000 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]内蒙古巴丹吉林自然保护区雅布赖管理站,内蒙古阿拉善737300

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2022年第16期121-126,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：内蒙古自治区高等学校科学技术研究项目(NJZY21034);内蒙古自治区大学生创新训练项目(202010131012)。

摘　　要：将内蒙古作为研究区,在61个蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)种群分布点和39个环境变量基础上,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS技术,探究影响蒙古扁桃生长的环境变量,并对21世纪50年代(2050s)不同气候情景下内蒙古蒙古扁桃适生区进行预测。结果表明,影响蒙古扁桃生长的主导环境变量是温度季节性变动系数、海拔、最热季平均降水量、坡度、坡向、年平均气温、等温性和最湿月降水量,累积贡献率达92.0%,温度、地形和降水对其影响较大,土壤因子影响较小;在当前气候情景下,内蒙古的蒙古扁桃主要分布在阿拉善左旗、阿拉善右旗、乌拉特后旗、乌拉特中旗、磴口县、乌海市辖区等荒漠地区;在2050s未来不同气候情景下,蒙古扁桃适宜生境面积整体呈增大趋势,适宜生境有向内蒙古北部和东部迁移趋势。Taking Inner Mongolia as the research area,based on 61 distribution sites of Amygdalus mongolica population and 39 envi⁃ronmental variables,MaxEnt model and ArcGIS technology were used to explore the environmental variables affecting the growth of Amygdalus mongolica.The suitable areas of Amygdalus mongolica in Inner Mongolia under different climate scenarios in the middle of 21 century(the 2050s)were predicted.The results showed that the main factors determining the growth of Amygdalus mongolica were the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,altitude,average precipitation in the hottest season,slope,aspect,annual average temperature,isotherm and precipitation in the wettest month,and the cumulative contribution rate was 92.0%.Temperature,topogra⁃phy and precipitation had a greater effect on the growth of Amygdalus mongolica,while soil factors had a smaller effect;under the cur⁃rent climate,the Amygdalus mongolica would be mainly distributed in the desert areas of Alxa Left Banner,Alxa Right Banner,Wul⁃at Back Banner,Wulat Middle Banner,Dengkou County and Wuhai City;Under different climate scenarios in the future of the 2050s,the area of suitable habitat for Amygdalus mongolica would increase,and the suitable habitat would tend to migrate to the north and east of Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica) 气候变化 MAXENT 地理分布 内蒙古 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]