全球化困境的跨越与中国“一带一路”倡议  

Leaping over Globalization Trilemma and the Chinese “Belt & Road” Initiative

作　　者：杜焕芳[1] 郭诗雅 Du Huanfang;Guo Shiya

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学法学院 [2]中国人民大学“一带一路”法律研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第5期5-16,共12页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：中国人民大学习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究工程(22XNQ003)。

摘　　要：从全球化和全球治理角度解释中美贸易争端具有正当性。针对中美贸易争端中的“修昔底德陷阱”,通过提高美国对抗成本或降低美国贸易损失的方式说服其提前终止博弈,此国际关系领域的动态博弈模型具有短期内避免中美贸易战爆发的理论意义,但长远来看无法解决中美贸易关系紧张的根本问题。“超全球化”形态是欧美等发达国家所主导道路的产物,与发展中国家所需要的“全球化+国家自治”难以兼容,因此欧美国家表现出回归“国家自治”的逆全球化趋势,中美贸易争端正是中美两国全球化发展道路的对抗性所引发矛盾之表现。实现世界经济由“超全球化”向“适度全球化”的平稳过渡,是中美贸易争端跨越“修昔底德陷阱”的关键。中国承担着全球化维护者、实践者的角色,应当为全球共识积累及全球治理规则生成提供国际公共平台。软法语境下的“一带一路”倡议能够提供平衡全球化与国家自治的全球治理供给,补充现有多边机制规则生成路径之不足。It is legitimate to explain Sino-US trade disputes from the perspective of globalization and global governance. To pass over “Thucydides Trap” in Sino-US trade disputes, a dynamic game model is proposed from the field of international relations, by increasing the cost of the United States to wrestle with China or reducing the loss of the United States in bilateral trades. For a short term, both approaches have the theoretical significance to avoid a trade war, but in the long run neither can help resolve the tensions between two States. “Hyper-globalization” is what developed countries like Europe and the United States are pursuing. However, what developing countries need and pursue is “Moderate globalization”, the way to which is “globalization and national determination”. Because of the trilemma among “globalization” “democracy” and “national determination”, developed countries are beginning to show the “anti-globalization” trend in recent years, and Sino-US trade dispute was just a sign of two conflicting paths chosen by the United States and China. The key to avoiding a “Thucydides Trap” is to realize the smooth transition of the world economy from “Hyper-globalization” to “Moderate globalization”. During this process, China, as a defender of globalization, should provide a platform for the accumulation of global consensus and the generation of global governance rules. The “Belt and Road” Initiative, in the context of soft law, can provide a balanced global governance supply between globalization and national determination, and supplement the existing multilateral mechanism in rules generation.

关 键 词：中美贸易争端 超全球化 适度全球化 “一带一路”倡议 

分 类 号：D996.1[政治法律—经济法学]