Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector  

作　　者：Xue-Ying XIANG Xing-Chen ZHAO Peng-Nan JIANG Jia WANG Ding GAO Fu-Li BAI Min-De AN Li-Ying YI Jing WU Jian-Xin HU 

机构地区：[1]College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [2]China Automotive Technology&Research Center Co.Ltd,Tianjin 300300,China [3]Institute of Transport Energy and Environment,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2022年第4期578-586,共9页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFC0214500)and the Energy Foundation Beijing Representative Office in China。

摘　　要：With the Kigali Amendment(KA)coming into effect in China,the control of hydrofuorocarbons(HFCs)emissions has become more imperative.The mobile air-conditioning(MAC)sector is one of the important HFCs consumer sectors,and therefore studying its feasible mitigation paths and costs is of great significance to Chinas successful implementation of KA.This study used the bottom-up method with updated emission factors to re-evaluate the emission inventory of HFCs from the MAC sector in China from 2005 to 2020.The average annual growth rate of HFCs consumption in the MAC sector is 9.8%,and HFCs emissions have increased from 5.8(5.3-6.2)kt in 2005 to 22.2(20.6-23.8)kt in 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 8.8%.Using the Gompertz model combined with the Weibull function of vehicle survival rate,the ownership and new registrations of internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs)and electric vehicles(EVs)in China are predicted.The ownership of ICEVs and EVs is projected to be 310 million and 91 million in 2030,respectively and 2 million and 641 million in 2060,respectively.HFCs emissions in the MAC sector would reach 59.8(55.3-64.3)kt(80.093.0 Mt CO_(2-eq))in 2060 if without any control measure.To implement the KA,the cumulative of 1.6 Gt CO_(2-eq) emissions would be reduced.Under the other two accelerated mitigation scenarios,the MAC sector's HFCs will reach their emissions peak in 2028 and 2025 and achieve zero emissions in 2050 and 2046,respectively.Under the accelerated mitigation with recovery scenario,the cumulative emissions are only 15.0%of the business as usual(BAU)scenario.Using HFO-1234yf as the substitute,the unit abatement cost of the MAC sector is 27.3-37.4 USD _(t)^(-1)CO_(2-eq).

关 键 词：Kigali amendment Hydrofuorocarbons(HFCs) Mobile air-conditioning(MAC) Emssions reduction potential Abatement cost 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]