Climate pledges versus commitment: Are policy actions of Middle-East and North African countries consistent with their emissions targets?  

作　　者：Hermas ABUDU Presley K.WESSEH Jr Boqiang LIN 

机构地区：[1]School of Management,China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy,Xiamen University,Fujian,361005,China [2]Belt and Road Research Institute,Xiamen University,Fujian,361005,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2022年第4期612-621,共10页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the funding of Belt and Road Research Institute,Xiamen University(No:1500-X2101200);National Natural Science Foundation of China(Key Program,No 72133003).

摘　　要：Carbon emission is inevitable,and changes with energy consumption and economic development,presents policy options toward sustainable development path.Currently,there is little assurance from policymakers in committing to climate change pledges:taking the Middle-East and North African(MENA)region as a specific case with using 2019 as a cut-off period.We conducted an interim assessment of the Paris Agreement to ascertain whether climate actions are in tandem with emissions reduction targets.Making use of difference-in-difference technique as a quasiexperiment supported by fixed-effects and placebo treatment models,the results point to evidence of less than 1%effective CO_(2) emissions reduction as of 2019 compared to the 2015 level.The current carbon emissions reduction commitment level is far-reaching contrary to the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)pledged(16.43%on average by 2030 compared to the 2015 level).The analysis suggests that achieving NDCs commitments are currently major burden on policymakers since the economic development is highly linked with nonrenewable energy consumption.Furthermore,a more comprehensive framework when accounting for all available renewable and clean energy projects shows reduction levels in the range of 30%-40%from 2020 to 2030.These results suggest that the Paris Agreement in MENA countries may be more effective from 2020,thus underscore the importance of capturing ongoing projects(involving renewable and clean energy technologies)into interim policy assessment.The shared implication is that greater efforts are demanded from the region and at country levels to further decrease emissions through the use of negative emissions technologies particularly in the electricity generation sector.

关 键 词：Paris Agreement Carbon emissions reduction potential Carbon effciency:Climate change policy quasi-experiment MENA climate change performance 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]