一种顾及数据时效的沉降预测模型序贯解算方法  

A sequential solution method of settlement forecast model considering the timeliness of data

作　　者：郑一帆 于先文[1] 董彦锋 ZHENG Yifan;YU Xianwen;DONG Yanfeng(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《现代交通与冶金材料》2022年第5期71-75,共5页Modern Transportation and Metallurgical Materials

摘　　要：工后沉降与构建物的安全性密切相关,精确预测工后沉降对工程的运营维护具有重要意义。现有沉降预测模型大多采用实测沉降数据等权拟合,无法反映不同时期观测数据对预测模型的影响差异。针对该问题,本文在沉降预测模型序贯算法的基础上,提出了一种顾及数据时效的随机模型确定及预测模型解算方法。引入了降权系数优化随机模型,得到顾及数据时效的模型序贯解算公式;从理论上分析了新方法对历史观测数据降权的规律;对隧道沉降预测进行了实测工程数据验证,结果表明:本文提出的新方法可以将沉降预测的精确度提高4~8倍。Post-construction settlement is closely related to the safety of the structure,and accurate prediction of post-construction settlement is of great significance to the operation and maintenance of the project. Most of the existing settlement prediction models fit the data in equal weight,which cannot reflect the difference in the influence between data in different periods on the prediction model. To solve this problem,based on the sequential algorithm of settlement prediction model,this paper proposes a method considering the timeliness of data in resolving the stochastic model and the prediction model.This study obtains a sequential solution formula of the model considering the timeliness of data by introducing the weaken coefficient to optimize the random model. The law of the new method to weaken the historical data is theoretically analyzed. The method is verified by engineering data and shows that it can improve the accuracy of settlement prediction by 4~8 times.

关 键 词：沉降预测 数据时效 序贯平差 预测模型 随机模型 

分 类 号：TU433[建筑科学—岩土工程]