基于时间序列分析的负荷高峰时段用电预测与削峰研究  

Research on Power Consumption Forecasting and Peak Shaving During Peak Load Period Based on Time Series Analysis

作　　者：李科 李龙胜 肖钰皓 LI Ke;LI Long-sheng;XIAO Yu-hao(State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company Information Communication Company,Chengdu 610061,China)

机构地区：[1]国网四川省电力公司信息通信公司,四川成都610061

出　　处：《光学与光电技术》2022年第4期153-159,共7页Optics & Optoelectronic Technology

摘　　要：电网负荷预测对保证电能质量有着非常重要的意义。提出了一种利用时间序列分析预测电网在未来72 h内负荷变化的方法,使电网调度部门可以了解用户负荷在短期内的变化趋势,从而采取对应的调度策略,来保证电能质量。此外,还针对用户的负载类别进行了统计研究,从而找出了在负荷高峰时段中使用占比较多的负载类型,鼓励用户将该类型负载的使用转移到非高峰时段,有利于实现负荷曲线削峰,保证电网安全运行。最后将电网公司与智能物联网系统收集到的数据进行了实验验证,其结果也表明了该方法的有效性。Power grid load forecasting is of great significance to ensure power quality.A method of using time series analysis to predict the load change of power grid in the next 72 hours is proposed in this paper,which enables the power grid dispatching department to understand the change trend of user load in the short term,so as to adopt the corresponding dispatching strategy to ensure the power quality.In addition,a statistical study on the load category of users is also made.Thus,the load type that accounts for a large proportion in the peak load period is found out,and users are encouraged to transfer the use of this type of load to non peak hours,which is beneficial to realize the peak shaving of load curve and ensure the safe operation of power grid.Finally,the data collected by the power grid company and the intelligent internet of things system are tested and verified,and the results also show the effectiveness of this method.

关 键 词：时间序列 负荷变化 短期预测 曲线峰值 削峰 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]