基于M-copula的水资源短缺风险经济损失预测模型及其应用  

Modelfor Water Shortage Risk Econimic Losses Based on M-Copula and Its Application

作　　者：钱龙霞 王红瑞[3] 王颖 赵自阳 QIAN Longxia;WANG Hongrui;WANG Ying;ZHAO Ziyang(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulie Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulie Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;School of Science,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,College of Water Sciences,Bejjing Normnal University,Bejjing 100875,China;School of Space and Environment,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029 [2]南京邮电大学理学院,南京210023 [3]北京师范大学水科学研究院-城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875 [4]北京航空航天大学空间与环境学院,北京100191

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2022年第4期907-917,共11页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51609254,51879010,51479003);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金(2020nkms03);南京邮电大学引进人才科研启动基金资助(NY219161);南京邮电大学校级科研基金资助(NY220035)。

摘　　要：仅使用一种常用的Gumbel Copula、Clayton Copula或Frank Copula无法刻画水文变量之间所有的相关模式和结构,引入M-Copula函数模拟供水量和用水量的联合分布,提出水资源短缺风险经济损失预测模型.比较M-Copula函数和Gumbel Copula、Clayton Copula和Frank Copula得到的尾部相关系数和均方误差,计算结果表明M-Copula函数显著优于Gumbel Copula、Clayton Copula和Frank Copula函数,可以全面刻画供水量和用水量之间的相关模式和结构.对天津市在丰水年(20%)、平水年(50%)、偏枯年(75%)和枯水年(95%)情景下的水资源短缺风险经济损失进行预估,结果表明:在偏枯年份和枯水年份,水资源短缺风险经济损失值分别约为108亿元和142亿元.It is impossible for Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula or Frank Copula to describe all the the dependence patterns and structures among hydrological variables.This paper first introduced M-Copula to model joint distribution between water supply and water consumption, and proposed a model for predicting economic losses of water shortage risk.M-Copula was proved to have the best performance by comparing the tail dependence coefficients and RMSEs generated by M-Copula, Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula, and Frank Copula.It is advantageous for M-Copula to describe dependence patterns and structures between water supply and water consumption comprehensively.The risk economic losses of Tianjin under different situations(20%,50%,75%,95%) were predicted by using the model.The economic losses are about 10.8 and 14.2 billion rmb under the situations of 75% and 95% respectively.

关 键 词：相关模式 M-Copula 供水量 用水量 水资源短缺风险 经济损失 天津 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]