经济政策不确定性与商业银行绩效——结构特征、影响机制与治理  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commercial Bank Performance——Structural Characteristics,Influence Mechanism and Governance

作　　者：黄大禹 凌丹[2] 邹梦婷 HUANG Da-yu;LIN Dan;ZOU Meng-ting(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,100083;School of Economics,Wuhan University of Technology,430072)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,100083 [2]武汉理工大学经济学院,430072

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2022年第8期60-78,共19页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“银行债务契约、财务报告质量与企业投资效率”(项目号:71072103);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“去杠杆影响企业风险承担的经济后果、机制路径及优化策略研究”(批准号:19YJA630093);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“环境不确定性、成本粘性与企业盈余质量研究”(项目批准号:2016VI005);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“微观去杠杆与企业风险承担研究”(项目编号:4130000182)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：基于全球经济政策不确定性陡增的大背景,借助2008-2020年中国商业银行机构数据,分析经济政策不确定性对商业银行绩效的影响、机制与可能的治理路径。实证结果发现,经济政策不确定性显著冲击了商业银行的经济绩效,特别是对于小规模、股份制银行机构而言更是如此。机制识别检验发现,经济政策不确定性会拉升银行机构的不良贷款率,损害业务核心竞争力,并降低盈利能力,由此导致了银行机构的经济绩效降低。基于“内部—外部”治理因素的探讨发现,在银行内部较高的治理水平、银行外部较好的市场化环境下,经济政策不确定性对商业银行绩效的负面冲击会有所减弱。本文从经济政策不确定性视角为理解商业银行机构绩效变迁提供了新的视角和经验证据,并提出了有效的克服经济政策不确定性的治理方略,具有一定的理论价值和实践指导意义。Based on the background of the sharp increase of global economic policy uncertainty,this paper analyzes the impact,mechanism and possible governance paths of economic policy uncertainty on commercial bank performance with the help of institutional data of Chinese commercial banks from 2008 to 2020.The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has a significant impact on the economic performance of commercial banks,especially for small-scale,joint-stock banking institutions.The mechanism identification test shows that economic policy uncertainty will increase the non-performing loan ratio of banking institutions,damage the core competitiveness of business,and reduce profitability,which will lead to lower economic performance of banking institutions.Based on the discussion of “internal-external” governance factors,it is found that the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the performance of commercial banks will be weakened under the higher governance level inside the bank and the better marketization environment outside the bank.This paper provides a new perspective and empirical evidence for understanding the performance changes of commercial banks from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty,and proposes an effective governance strategy to overcome economic policy uncertainty,which has certain theoretical value and practical guiding significance.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 银行机构 经济效率 影响渠道 治理机制 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]