考虑溪-向梯级调蓄影响的三峡水库分期汛限水位研究  

Study on Staged Flood Limit Water Level of Three Gorges Reservoir Affected by Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba Cascade Regulation

作　　者：李英海[1,2] 夏青青 王永强[3] 张海荣 兰回归 孟虹池 杨苑 LI Ying-hai;XIA Qing-qing;WANG Yong-Qiang;ZHANG Hai-rong;LAN Hui-gui;MENG Hong-chi;YANG Yuan(Hubei Key Laboratory of Hydropower Engineering Construction and Mangement,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang443002,China;Water Resources Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;China Yangtze Power Company Limited,Water Resources Research Center,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,湖北武汉430010 [4]中国长江电力股份有限公司水资源研究中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2022年第7期1514-1522,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2021889/KY);湖北省教育厅科学技术研究项目(D20201201);国家自然科学基金项目(51909010)。

摘　　要：针对运行期溪洛渡、向家坝梯级水库调蓄引起的三峡水库入库洪水规律改变,进而导致设计汛限水位不合理的问题,开展三峡水库分期汛限水位研究。首先根据溪洛渡、向家坝水库调度规则得到向家坝水库下泄流量过程,进而采用多维Copula函数对向家坝-三峡区间干支流洪水的峰现时间和洪峰量级遭遇情况进行分析,还现计算三峡水库入库流量,最后采用数理统计法和改进Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期,调洪计算分期汛限水位,并对防洪风险和兴利效益进行比较分析。研究表明,考虑溪-向梯级水库调蓄影响的三峡水库汛期可分为3期:6月10日~6月30日为前汛期、7月1日~8月31日为主汛期、9月1日~9月30日为后汛期,对应汛限水位分别为159.1、148.7、159.2 m。在不增加防洪风险的前提下,汛期可增加蓄水量180.20×10~8 m~3、发电量10.33×10~8 kW·h。In view of the change of inflow flood rule of the Three Gorges Reservoir caused by the regulation and storage of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs during the operation period,which leads to the unreasonable design flood limit water level,the study of seasonal flood limit water level of Three Gorges Reservoir is carried out.Firstly,the discharge process of Xiangjiaba Reservoir is obtained according to the dispatching rules of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba Reservoirs.Then,the multi-dimensional Copula function is used to analyze the occurrence time and flood peaks magnitude of the main and tributaries of Xiangjiaba-Three Gorges interval,and the inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir is calculated.Further,the mathematical statistics method and the improved Fisher optimal segmentation method are adopted to divide the flood season,and then the flood limited water level of flood season is calculated by flood regulation.Finally,the risk of flood control and benefits are compared and analyzed.The results show that the flood season of the Three Gorges Reservoir can be divided into three periods:the pre-flood season from June 10 to June 30,the main flood season from July 1 to August 31,and the post-flood season from September 1 to September 30.The corresponding flood limit water levels are 159.1,148.7 and 159.2 m,respectively.Without increasing the risk of flood control,the flood season can increase water storage by 180.20×10~8 m~3 and the power generation by 10.33×10~8 kW·h.

关 键 词：溪洛渡、向家坝梯级 三峡水库 分期汛限水位 防洪风险 兴利效益 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]