Effects of China’s VAT system transition on firms’investment and employment——Empirical evidence from the national tax surveys of 2008-2009  

作　　者：Mao Jie Zhao Jing Huang Chunyuan 

机构地区：[1]University of International Business and Economics,Beijing,China [2]Institute of Economics of CASS,Beijing,China [3]Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing,China

出　　处：《China Finance and Economic Review》2015年第4期23-38,共16页中国财政与经济研究（英文）

基　　金：Beijing Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project:“Fiscal and Taxation Reform and Accelerating the Transformation of Economic Development Mode in Beijing:From the Perspective of Replacing Business Tax with VAT(13JGC070)”;The Research Project of University of International Business and Economics:“Tax Economics”(X13007).

摘　　要：Based on a theoretical analysis,this paper empirically studies the effects of China’s VAT system transition in 2009 on the Chinese firms’fixed capital investment and employee recruitment by using the data of National Tax Survey from 2008 to 2009 for the first time.The main findings are as follows.(1)The transition stimulates investment in some industries like Petrochemical,Electricity,and Equipment Manufacturing,but Automotive Industry and Extractive Industry are exceptional.(2)The transition impedes the growth of employment in the Processing Industry for Agricultural Products and the Petrochemical Industry,but has improved the employment situation in Electricity and Automotive industries.The prosperity and marketization degree of industries are key factors that determine the effects.Our findings show that the effects of China’s VAT system transition vary amongst different industries,which imply that when implementing the VAT-related reforms like the reform program to replace business tax with VAT,the Chinese government should design relevant institutions with regard to the macroeconomic environment and differences in industries,and gradually put reform measures into practice.

关 键 词：overall transition of the VAT system fixed capital investment employment producing propensity score matching 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]