多种降水再分析数据在长江流域的适用性对比  

Evaluation on applicability of various reanalysis datasets of precipitation in Changjiang River Basin

作　　者：丁光旭 郭家力[1,2,3] 汤正阳 张海荣[2] 郭豪豪 DING Guangxu;GUO Jiali;TANG Zhengyang;ZHANG Hairong;GUO Haohao(College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science,China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Ministry of Education,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]中国长江电力股份有限公司智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443000 [3]三峡大学三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《人民长江》2022年第9期72-79,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179018,52009065,51909010);中国长江电力股份有限公司智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(ZH2002000103);三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心开放基金项目(KF2019-12);宜昌市自然科学研究项目(A20-3-005)。

摘　　要：为评估CMFD、MSWEP和ERA5这3种降水再分析数据在长江流域的适用性,基于长江流域1979~2016年226个地面气象站点逐日降水资料,运用定量评价指标和分类统计指标对3种降水再分析数据精度进行多尺度评估。结果表明:3种降水再分析数据中,ERA5在长江流域整体上呈现出高估现象;CMFD无论是对于日尺度、月尺度还是年尺度精度评估,都能较好地反映实际降水变化;对于不同量级降水探测能力方面,3种降水再分析数据总体上表现为CMFD>ERA5>MSWEP;CMFD以及MSWEP在汛期的表现要优于非汛期;ERA5虽高估各月降水,但其年内降水分布趋势与地面站点降水一致。总体而言,CMFD在长江流域的适用性要高于MSWEP以及ERA5。研究成果可为长江流域降水及水文模拟等相关研究选择可靠的降水再分析产品提供依据。To evaluate applicability of 3reanalysis datasets of precipitation(CMFD,MSWEP and ERA5)in the Changjiang River Basin,this paper used the quantitative evaluation indices and the classified statistical indices to evaluate the accuracy of the three reanalysis datasets at multiple scales based on the daily precipitation data of 226 meteorological stations in the Changjiang River Basin from 1979 to 2016.The results show that ERA5 shows an overestimation phenomenon in the Changjiang River Basin as a whole among the three reanalysis datasets.CMFD can better reflect the actual precipitation change whether it is for daily scale,monthly scale or annual scale accuracy evaluation.In terms of the precipitation detection capacities of different magnitudes,the order is CMFD>ERA5>MSWEP.The performances of CMFD and MSWEP in flood season are better than those in non-flood season.Although ERA5 overestimates monthly precipitation,its annual precipitation distribution trend is consistent with that of gauge-based precipitation.In general,the applicability of CMFD in the Changjiang River Basin is higher than that of MSWEP and ERA5.The research results can provide a basis for the selection of reliable precipitation reanalysis products for related research and applications such as precipitation and hydrological simulation in the Changjiang River Basin.

关 键 词：降水再分析数据 CMFD MSWEP ERA5 精度评估 长江流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]