美国贸易政策不确定性对中美玉米期货市场波动的影响  

The Influence of US Trade Policy Uncertainty on Corn Futures Market Volatility in China and the US

作　　者：周大朋 穆月英[1] ZHOU Dapeng;MU Yueying

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《世界农业》2022年第10期28-38,共11页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国粮食生产的水资源时空匹配及优化路径研究”(18ZDA074)。

摘　　要：近年来美国贸易政策不断调整。美国作为世界主要的玉米出口国,美国贸易政策对中美两国玉米期货市场的影响值得关注。本文基于TVP-SV-VAR模型分析美国贸易政策不确定性对中美玉米期货市场的等间隔和特定时点的影响,研究表明:美国贸易政策不确定性对中美玉米期货市场的影响时变特征明显且不具有持续性;两国玉米期货市场所受影响有明显的阶段性和差异性,中美玉米期货市场的脉冲响应分别呈现出负向和正向;在特定时点下,美国贸易政策不确定性对中美玉米期货市场影响正负向交替进行并逐步减弱;美国贸易政策不确定性的波动加大了美国对中国玉米期货市场的影响程度。据此,中国应通过贸易合作,扩大国内玉米产能、寻找玉米进口替代国,完善玉米期货市场等多举措齐头并进,应对美国贸易政策变动带来的影响。In recent years,the US trade policy has been adjusted constantly.As the world’s main corn exporter,the US trade policy has a significant impact on the corn futures market of China and the US.Based on TVP-SV-VAR model,this paper analyzes the influence of US trade policy uncertainty on the corn futures market of China and the US at equal intervals and specific time points.The research shows that:the influence of US trade policy uncertainty on the corn futures market of China and the US has obvious time-varying characteristics and is not sustainable;there are obvious stages and differences in the impact of corn futures markets in the two countries;the impulse responses of corn futures markets in China and America are negative and positive,respectively;at a specific time point,the impact of the US trade policy uncertainty on the Sino-US corn futures market was alternately positive and negative and gradually weakened;the volatility of US trade policy uncertainty has increased the extent of US influence on China’s corn futures market.Accordingly,China should expand domestic corn production capacity,seek for corn import surrogate country and improve corn futures market through trade cooperation to deal with the impact of the US trade policy change.

关 键 词：美国贸易政策不确定性 玉米期货 TVP-SV-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F713.35F757.12