基于T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络的注水管道失效概率计算方法研究  

Study on Failure Probability Calculation Method of Water Injection Pipeline based on T-S Fuzzy Fault Tree and Bayesian Network

作　　者：陈丽娜[1] 齐光峰[1] 韩庆[1] 彭锡文 姬杰 Chen Lina;Qi Guangfeng;Han Qing;Peng Xiwen;Ji Jie(Technology Testing Center,SINOPEC Shengli Oilfield Company,Shandong,Dongying,257000;Equipment Management Department,SINOPEC Shengli Oilfield Company,Shandong,Dongying,257000;Testing and Evaluation Research Co.,Ltd.,SINOPEC Shengli Oilfield Company,Shandong,Dongying,257000)

机构地区：[1]中国石化胜利油田分公司技术检测中心,山东东营257000 [2]中国石化胜利油田分公司设备管理部,山东东营257000 [3]胜利油田检测评价研究有限公司,山东东营257000

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2022年第9期38-45,共8页Safety Health & Environment

摘　　要：随着油田注水系统的运行,其安全评价问题越来越受到重视,但定性的安全评价不能充分体现注水管道的状态。将T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络原理与注水管道危险有害因素及失效特征相结合,并根据可获取的油田检测数据,建立了注水管道T-S模糊故障树与贝叶斯网络图,采用模糊子集来描述根节点故障概率,计算了中间节点和叶节点各个故障状态对应的故障概率模糊子集,形成了注水管道失效概率计算方法,对注水管道进行定量安全评价,从而判断注水管道安全状态,指导现场安全生产。With the operation of the oilfield water injection system,the safety evaluation problem has been paid more and more attention,but the qualitative safety evaluation wasn't able to fully reflect the state of the water injection pipeline.This paper combined the principle of T-S fuzzy fault tree and Bayesian network with the harmful factors and failure characteristics of the water injection pipeline,and established the T-S fuzzy fault tree and Bayesian network diagram,and the fuzzy subset was used to describe the fault probability of the root node and leaf node,form the failure probability calculation method to determine the safety status of the water injection pipeline and guide the safe production on site.

关 键 词：T-S模糊故障树 贝叶斯网络 注水管道 失效概率 安全状态 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]