业绩排名与股市行情对基金经理工作变更的影响研究--基于考核周期与职业选择的双重视角  

Research on the Effects of Performance Ranking and Stock Market on Fund Manager Replacement:Based on Double Perspectives of Appraisal Cycle and Career Choice

作　　者：易力[1] 唐笛 肖力 YI Li;TANG Di;XIAO Li(Business School,Hunan Normal University,Changsha,Hunan 410081)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《上海立信会计金融学院学报》2022年第4期91-110,共20页Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金项目(20YBA177)。

摘　　要：文章选取2009-2020年726只开放式基金作为研究对象,基于考核周期与职业选择的双重视角,实证检验了业绩排名与股市行情对基金经理工作变更的影响。研究发现:基金公司对基金经理进行年度考核时更看重其长期业绩,当基金业绩排名较差时,基金经理发生被动离职的概率增大;股市行情较好时,基金经理更关注个人职业发展,主动跳槽的意愿更强;综合来看,基金经理工作变更将随着前期业绩排名呈现显著的U型关系。相对于业绩中等的基金经理,垫底基金经理被动离职和明星基金经理主动跳槽的可能性都将大大提高,但U型关系只出现在牛市,熊市并不显著。基金经理工作变更后,短期来看,明星基金业绩和净资金流显著下降,垫底基金业绩和净资金流则得到较大提升,牛市会更加明显;长期来看,无论是明星基金还是垫底基金,基金经理工作变更对业绩与资金流影响的边际效应都在递减,熊市会更加显著。This paper examines the effects of performance ranking and stock market on fund manager replacement using a sample of 726 open-ended funds from 2009 to 2020,based on double perspectives of appraisal cycle and career choice.It is found that:fund companies pay more attention to focus more on their long-term performance when conducting annual assessment on fund managers.When the fund performance ranks poorly,the probability of passive resignation of fund managers increases;When the stock market is good,fund managers pay more attention to personal career development and are more willing to take the initiative to change jobs.In summary,there is a significant U-shaped relationship between fund manager replacement and previous fund performance ranking.Relative to fund managers with medium performance,both top and bottom performers are more likely to leave from their fund companies.However,this U-shaped relationship only happens in a bull market rather than a bear market.After fund manager replacement,in the short term,the performance and net capital flow of star funds decreased significantly,while the performance and net capital flow of bottom funds improved significantly,and the bull market will be more obvious;In the long run,the marginal effect of fund manager job change on performance and capital flow is decreasing,and the bear market will be more significant,whether for star funds or bottom funds.

关 键 词：基金经理工作变更 业绩排名 股市行情 考核周期 职业选择 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F272.92