国际税改支柱二对中国海外投资的影响  

Impact of International Tax Reform Pillar Ⅱ on Chinese Overseas Investment

作　　者：詹晓宁 严兵[1] 齐凡 Zhan Xiaoning;Yan Bing;Qi Fan(Institute of International Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济研究所,天津300071

出　　处：《开放导报》2022年第5期24-33,共10页China Opening Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:中国制造业外迁态势、经济影响与对策研究(21AJL011)。

摘　　要：国际税改支柱二对全球范围内跨国公司设定最低所得税税率,将有效打击“避税天堂”和税收竞争对各国的税基侵蚀行为,对全球投资产生较大影响。结合投资规模、投资分布、税收激励政策与全球经济特区四个层面来分析,支柱二对中国海外投资可能的影响是:面对上升的所得税税率水平,中国对外投资的存量规模短期内将受到负面冲击,而从长期看可以得到改善,在考虑中转投资问题时,冲击程度会有所增加。投资企业与东道国作为投资博弈的主体,二者将在全球税改的推动下,促使全球投资环境从税收的逐底竞争朝着基础设施建设等支出竞争发展,缓解此前由所得税竞争所造成的投资扭曲现象。基于此,中国需要继续积极推动国际税改,扩大全球治理体系改革决策成员的范围;尽可能降低企业在国内的税收负担,并朝着非税收激励方向转型,坚持鼓励企业进行研发投入;稳定香港在吸收投资中的重要地位,维护香港与内地的投资往来;对外投资企业在战略布局时应作出及时调整,灵活掌握纳税规则;加强引导对外投资企业设计预案。Pillar II of the global tax reform,which sets a minimum income tax rate for multinational corporations worldwide,will effectively combat tax base erosion by“tax havens”and tax competition,and will have a significant impact on global investment.The potential impact of Pillar II on Chinese overseas investment is that the stock size of Chinese outbound investment will be negatively impacted in the short term by rising income tax rates,but will be improved in the long term,with the extent of the impact increasing when considering transit investment.The investment enterprise and the host country,as the main subjects of the investment game,both will be driven by the global tax reform to push the global investment environment from bottom-up competition in taxation towards competition in infrastructure construction and other expenditures,alleviating the investment distortions previously caused by income tax competition.Based on this,China needs to continue to actively promote international tax reform and expand the membership of the global governance system reform decision-making;reduce the tax burden of enterprises in the country as much as possible and shift towards non-tax incentives and insist on encouraging enterprises to invest in R&D;stabilise Hong Kong’s important position in absorbing investment and maintain investment flows between Hong Kong and the Mainland;outbound investment enterprises should make timely adjustments in their strategic layout and flexibly grasp the tax rules;and strengthen the guidance for outbound investment enterprises to design a prognosis.

关 键 词：国际税制改革 支柱二 对外投资 应对策略 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]