人口流动对新冠肺炎传播影响的时空分析——以美国为例  

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Influence of Population Mobility on COVID-19 Transmissibility:A Case Study of the United States

作　　者：黄志辉 黄波 汪炯骅[2] HUANG Zhi-hui;HUANG Bo;WANG Jiong-hua(Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756;Department of Geography and Resource Management,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学地球科学与环境工程学院,四川成都611756 [2]香港中文大学地理与资源管理学系,中国香港999077

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2022年第5期65-71,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划子课题“城市公共安全事件的发现与预警研究”(2017YFB0503605-04)。

摘　　要：探究新冠肺炎(COVID-19)的传播机理及驱动因素已成为研究热点,其中人口流动对其传播的驱动效应更是重点议题。该文基于Google人口流动大数据,以美国本土为研究区,分析COVID-19疫情时空演变并构建时空回归模型,探究不同场所人口流动对COVID-19实时传播率影响的时空异质性。结果表明:1)截至2020年11月30日,美国COVID-19疫情总体呈逐步加剧趋势;2)相比普通最小二乘模型、地理加权回归模型和时间加权回归模型,时空地理加权回归模型能更精准地揭示不同因子的时空驱动效应;3)零售与娱乐场所、药店与杂货店、交通站点和工作场所的人流对COVID-19传播起促进作用,其中工作场所人流是最主要的驱动因素,而公园和住宅区人流则起抑制作用;4)除零售与娱乐场所外,其余场所人流对COVID-19传播率的作用系数呈现“西低东高”的空间分布格局。研究结果可以为我国应对COVID-19疫情防控力量时空配置和人流限制政策优化提供参考。Investigating the mechanisms and drivers of the spread of COVID-19 has become a research hotspot,with the effect of population mobility on its transmissibility being a key issue.Based on the Google′s population mobility data,this paper analyses the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic,and constructs spatiotemporal models to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of population mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility in different places in the continental United States.The research results show that:1)Until November 30,2020,the COVID-19 pandemic has increasing gradually in the United States.2)Compared with ordinary least square,geographically weighted regression model and time weighted regression model,geographical and temporal weighted regression model reveals more precisely the spatiotemporal driving effects of different factors.3)The population mobility of retail and recreation,pharmacy and grocery,transit stations and workplaces shows a boost to transmissibility of COVID-19,with the population mobility of workplace is the most significant factor,while parks and residential areas have a suppressive effect on transmissibility of COVID-19.4)With the exception of retail and recreation,the effect coefficients of population mobility to COVID-19 transmissibility for all places show a spatial distribution pattern of low in the west and high in the east.The results of the study can provide a reference for the spatiotemporal allocation of epidemic prevention forces and the optimization of mobility restriction policies in response to COVID-19 outbreak in China.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎(COVID-19) 实时传播率 人口流动 时空异质性 时空地理加权回归(GTWR) 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]