俄乌冲突对中国农产品贸易的影响及中国的应对  

Influences of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on China’s Agricultural Trade and China’s Countermeasures

作　　者：白雪冰 王萍 周应恒 Bai Xuebing;Wang Ping;Zhou Yingheng

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]江西财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2022年第4期127-150,共24页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“农村集体产权制度改革深化与经济发展研究”(项目批准号:20ZDA045);国家自然科学基金重点项目“新时期农业发展的国家政策支持体系研究”(项目批准号:71333008)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄罗斯和乌克兰是包括中国在内的全球谷物和植物油的主要供给国。俄乌冲突背景下,乌克兰粮食出口港口被封,生产面临减产风险,加上一些国家出台粮食出口限制措施,加剧了全球粮食市场的波动。分析表明,俄乌出口中国的主要农产品小麦、玉米和葵花籽油,具有较强的国别和品种替代性,对中国农产品贸易的直接冲击较小且可控,但是间接影响波及范围较大,集中体现在国际价格上涨的传导效应以及中国在俄乌的农业企业投资风险上升。随着俄乌冲突的变化,未来中俄农产品贸易量可能呈扩大趋势,而中乌农产品贸易则出现了不确定性。因此本文建议,中国需密切关注俄乌局势走向,加强农产品贸易监测预警风险管控,及时出台进口替代解决方案,促进农产品进口市场多元化。同时需继续深化中俄、中乌农业合作,加大对在乌克兰的中国农企的支持,重构中俄农业贸易合作的条件保障,提升中国在国际农产品贸易市场的调控能力。Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of global grain and vegetable oil including for China.Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Ukraine’s grain export ports have been blocked and production is facing the risk of reduction.In addition,some countries have introduced grain export restrictions,which has exacerbated the volatility of the global grain market.According to the analysis,the main agricultural products exported by Russia and Ukraine to China,namely wheat,corn and sunflower oil,can be easily substituted by other countries and varieties.Their direct impacts on China’s agricultural trade are rather small and controllable but indirect impacts are huge.They mainly include the transmission effect of rising international prices and rising investment risks of Chinese agricultural enterprises in both Russia and Ukraine.With changes in Russia-Ukraine conflict,in the future Sino-Russian trade volume of agricultural products might show an expanding trend,while uncertainties emerge in Sino-Ukraine agricultural trade.Therefore,this paper suggests that China should pay close attention to the crisis,strengthen agricultural monitoring,early warning and risk control,in addition to introducing import substitution solutions in a timely manner to promote the diversification of the agricultural product import market.Meanwhile,it is imperative to continue deepening Sino-Russian and Sino-Ukrainian agricultural cooperation,provide more support for Chinese agricultural enterprises in Ukraine,reconstruct conditions for Sino-Russian agricultural trade cooperation,and enhance China’s capabilities in regulating and controlling international agricultural product trade market.

关 键 词：俄乌农业 全球粮食市场 中俄农产品贸易 中乌农产品贸易 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]