储气库套管柱环空压力影响因素动态评价  

Risk Assessment of Annular Pressure Buildup in Natural Gas Storage

作　　者：刘毅璠 闫怡飞[1,2] 宋运存 闫相祯[2] LIU Yifan;YAN Yifei;SONG Yuncun;YAN Xiangzhen(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao,Shandong 266580,China;Oil and Gas CAE Technology Research Center,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao,Shandong 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,山东青岛266580 [2]中国石油大学(华东)CAE技术研究中心,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《石油管材与仪器》2022年第5期51-56,共6页Petroleum Tubular Goods & Instruments

摘　　要：为了减少储气库运行过程中环空带压的发生,根据气井屏障失效导致的环空压力异常事件之间的逻辑关系,构建了储气库井环空压力静态风险失效模型。采用贝叶斯法则对静态风险失效模型进行了映射,确定了造成环空压力失效基本事件的后验概率,并预测了动态失效风险。根据事件的风险等级,提出了相应的建议措施。计算分析结果表明:储气库环空压力异常的动态失效概率随时间呈指数型上升。管柱磨损和管柱内压变化等6个因素对某储气库环空压力异常的影响较大。应控制导致环空压力异常的环境温度,监测导致环空压力异常的管柱磨损等主要因素。In order to reduce the occurrence of annular cavitation pressure during the operation of gas storage,a static risk failure model of annular pressure was established according to the logical relationship between risk assessment events.The static risk failure model is mapped by Bayesian rule,the posterior probability of the basic event causing annular pressure failure is determined,and the dynamic failure risk is predicted.According to the risk level of the event,some suggestions are put forward.The results show that the dynamic failure probability of abnomal annulus pressure increases exponentially with time.Six factors,including insufficient pipe wall thickness and changes in pipe pressure,etc.,have great influence on the abnormal annular pressure of a gas storage.Controlling ambient temperature changes and monitoring string wear causing annular pressure abnomalies are the most important.

关 键 词：储气库 环空压力 风险等级评价 贝叶斯网络 动态预测 

分 类 号：TE931[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]