1890—2020年伊朗M_(S)≥6.8地震时空对称性及趋势分析  

Space-time symmetry of M_(S)≥6.8 earthquakes in Iran from 1890 to 2020 and future earthquake situation

作　　者：杨馥宁 延军平 王婷 肖南 朱春鸣 YANG Funing;YAN Junping;WANG Ting;XIAO Nan;ZHU Chunming(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,Shaanxi,China;College of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710119 [2]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2022年第5期1225-1232,共8页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:中国西部地震灾害时空对称性结构精细化对接研究(41877519)。

摘　　要：探寻区域地震的时空规律并进行趋势判断对防震减灾有重大的现实意义。选取1890—2020年伊朗M_(S)≥6.8地震数据,采用可公度方法、三性法和蝴蝶结构图等方法研究区域地震的时空对称性,并结合太阳黑子数、地球自转速度变化对发震的物理机理进行探讨。研究结果表明(1)伊朗的强震具有良好的可公度性,从时间趋势判断上看,2022年伊朗发生M_(S)≥6.8地震的信号最强,2024年次之,并且通过三性法得知发生在2022年底的可能性更大。(2)从空间对称性上看,根据历史地震的经纬度迁移和震中三角迁移规律,下一次地震发生在32°N,54°E东南方区域内的可能性较大。(3)伊朗M_(S)≥6.8地震多发生在太阳黑子的极值年和下降段;同时,强震多发生在地球自转减速期和日长极值年及其附近,这在一定程度上佐证了灾害时空对称方法的可靠性。本研究进一步深化了对地震的规律认识,同时对三性法在区域上的应用有一定探索意义。It is of great practical significance for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction to explore the spatiotemporal regularity of regional earthquakes and evaluate the future earthquake situation.In this study,we selected M_(S)≥6.8 earthquakes in Iran from 1890 to 2020.The space-time symmetry of regional earthquakes was analyzed using the commensurability method,triplet method,and butterfly structure diagram,and the physical mechanism of earthquakes was discussed in combination with the changes in the sunspot number and Earth’s rotation speed.The results show the following:(1)The strong earthquakes in Iran have good commensurability.According to the temporal symmetry trend,the signal of the next M_(S)≥6.8 earthquake in Iran is strongest in 2022,followed by that in 2024.Moreover,it is more likely to happen at the end of 2022 via the triplet method.(2)In terms of spatial symmetry,the next earthquake is more likely to occur in the southeast region of 32°N,54°E according to the migration rule of the longitude and latitude and the epicentral triangle rule of historical earthquakes.(3)The M_(S)≥6.8 earthquakes in Iran mostly occurred in the extreme years and the descending period of sunspots.At the same time,they mostly happened during the deceleration period of the Earth’s rotation and the extreme years of the day length,which proves the reliability of the space-time symmetry method to a certain extent.This study further deepens the understanding of the regularity of earthquakes and has a certain explorative significance for the regional application of the triplet method.

关 键 词：时空对称性 可公度 三性法 地震 伊朗 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]