新冠肺炎疫情中政府信任如何影响公众风险感知?——媒介依赖的调节作用  

The Effects of Government Trust on Public Risk Perceptions during the COVID-19 Pandemic:The Moderating Effect of Media Dependency

作　　者：祝哲 张楠[2,3] 张静 华晓梅 ZHU Zhe;ZHANG Nan;ZHANG Jing;HUA Xiaomei(School of Public Administration and Emergency Management,Ji􀆳nan University;School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院 [2]清华大学公共管理学院 [3]清华大学计算社会科学与国家治理实验室 [4]河北省档案馆

出　　处：《公共管理评论》2022年第3期47-69,共23页China Public Administration Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“双系统视角下突发公共卫生事件公众风险感知及应对行为演化研究”(项目批准号:72004078);国家自然科学基金项目“公共部门数字化转型背景下协同治理模式创新与效能评价研究”(项目批准号:71974111);清华大学春风基金项目“基于多源数据分析的新冠疫情应对政策公众行为影响研究”(项目批准号:2020Z99CFW048)资助。

摘　　要：把握公众风险感知的规律并进行合理引导对新冠肺炎疫情防控至关重要。以往研究发现,政府信任是风险感知的主要影响因素之一,但二者之间的关系却未有定论。在新冠肺炎疫情这一突发公共卫生危机事件情境下,政府信任如何影响公众风险感知?媒介依赖会加剧或削弱这种影响吗?本文从挤压效应和遵从效应两个角度来解释政府信任对风险感知的作用机制,基于2020年3月在全国范围开展的配额抽样与便利抽样相结合的问卷调查,使用有序逻辑回归模型对2432份有效问卷分析发现:公众的政府信任负向影响其风险感知水平,公众的媒介依赖发挥调节效应。本文提出的影响机制解释了现有研究对政府信任和风险感知关系的争论,研究结论可以为我国各级政府制定有效的风险沟通策略提供实证支撑。The laws of public risk perceptions and reasonable guidance are crucial to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.Previous studies have found that government trust is one of the main influencing factors on risk perceptions,but the relationship between the two is inconclusive.Some studies show that government trust is positively correlated with people’s risk perceptions;others argue that the two factors are negatively correlated;and finally,there are those who maintain that the two are independent of each other.The media today have been an effective bridge connecting the government and the public,and the new media have been widely used by the government to communicate with the public during times of crisis.This offers empirical evidence to observe how government trust impacts the people’s risk perceptions.Therefore,we propose the following research questions:In response to the COVID-19 pandemic,what has been the impact of government trust on public risk perceptions? Is the impact strengthened or weakened by dependency on the new media?Based on Protection Motivation Theory,this study constructs a moderation model from the perspective of risk communications and provides a theoretical explanation for the debates in the existing research.Specifically,this paper summarizes the existing studies and proposes two impact mechanisms between government trust and public risk perceptions—a squeeze effect,which means that the public is likely to reduce risk perceptions and preparations for protection due to trust in the government’s capacity to respond to a crisis;and a compliance effect,which means that the public prefers to comply with the requirements of the government and to adjust their own risk perceptions.We conducted a survey combining quota sampling and convenience sampling during March 2020,from which 2432 questionnaires were collected.The findings from the data,which were analyzed by an ordered logistic regression model,are the following.First,the higher the public’s trust in the government,the

关 键 词：公众风险感知 政府信任 媒介依赖 新冠肺炎疫情 疫情防控 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学] D630[政治法律—政治学]