2015-2018年中山市大气污染物与急性心脑血管疾病发病的广义相加模型分析  

Generalized additive model analysis of air pollutants and acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseasesin Zhongshan City from 2015-2018

作　　者：张浩玲[1] 林海[2] 李俊毅 郭艳[1] 胡凯旋[2] 周霭婷 ZHANG Hao-ling;LIN Hai;LI Jun-yi;GUO Yan;HU Kai-xuan;ZHOU Ai-ting(Institute of Public Health and Food Hygiene,Zhongshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhongshan Guangdong,528403,China;Institute for Prevention and Control of Chronic Non-communicable Diseases,Zhongshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhongshan Guangdong,528403,China;School of Public Health,Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,Guangzhou Guangdong,510000,China;Department of Neurology,Zhongshan People's Hospital,Zhongshan Guangdong,528403,China)

机构地区：[1]中山市疾病预防控制中心公共卫生与食品卫生所,广东中山528403 [2]中山市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防治所,广东中山528403 [3]广东药科大学公共卫生学院,广东广州510000 [4]中山市人民医院神经内科,广东中山528403

出　　处：《职业与健康》2022年第18期2541-2545,共5页Occupation and Health

基　　金：中山市社会公益科技研究项目(2019B1110);中山市医学科研项目(2019A020075)。

摘　　要：目的了解中山市大气污染物对急性心脑血管疾病发病影响.方法收集2015-2018年中山市居民急性心脑血管疾病发病资料及同期大气污染物浓度、气象等资料,并对数据进行分析.结果2015-2018年中山市人群心脑血管疾病年均发病率为528.23/10万,男性高于女性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01).二氧化氮滞后两天(NO_(2)lag2)、二氧化硫滞后两天(SO_(2)lag2)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3)全人群急性心脑血管疾病发病率分别增加1.10%(95%CI:0.24%~1.97%)、4.11%(95%CI:1.39%~6.84%).SO_(2)lag4浓度每上升10μg/m^(3)导致≥65岁男性急性心脑血管疾病发病率增加7.00%(95%CI:2.61%~11.41%).可吸入颗粒物滞后两天(PM_(10)lag2)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3)对<65岁女性心脑血管疾病发病率增加0.24%(95%CI:0.07%~0.41%).结论2015-2018年中山市气态污染物NO_(2)和SO_(2)增加入群心脑血管疾病发病风险,≥65岁男性可能是SO_(2)的易感人群,<65岁女性可能是颗粒物的易感人群,应该有针对性的加强大气污染的防治及易感人群的保护.Objective To explore the influence of air pollutants on the incidence of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Zhongshan City.Methods The data on the incidence of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among residents in Zhongshan City from 2015-2018,as well as the concentration of air pollutants,meteorology and other data during the same period were collected and analyzed.Results From 2015-2018,the average annual incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Zhongshan City was 528.23/1000000,which was higher in males than in females,and the dfference wasstatisticallysignificant(P<0.01).The incidence of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the whole population increased by 1.10%(95%CI:0.24%-1.97%),4.11%(95%CI:1.39%-6.84%)for every 10μg/m^(3) increasing in the concentration of nitrogen dioxide with a time lag of two days(NO_(2)lag2)and sulfur dioxide with a time lag of two days(SO_(2)lag2).Every 10μg/m^(3) increase in SO-lag4 concentration resulted in a 7.00%(95%CI:2.61%-11.41%)increase in the incidence of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease in males aged≥65 years old.Every 10μg/m increase in the two-day lag of inhalable particulate matter(PMlag2)concentration resulted in a 0.24%(95%CI:0.07%-0.41%)increase in the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in females aged<65 years old.Conclusion The gaseous pollutants,NO_(2),and SO_(2),in Zhongshan City increase the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the population,males aged≥65 years old may be susceptible to SO_(2),and females aged<65 years old may be susceptible to the particulate mater,so the measure and management should be strengthened in a targeted manner for prevention and control of air pollution and the protection of susceptible population.

关 键 词：大气污染 急性心脑血管疾病 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R181.34[医药卫生—流行病学]