我国经济双循环关系演进、质量提升与未来取向  

Evolution, quality improvement and future orientation of China ’s economic dual circulation relationship

作　　者：张铭慎[1] 陆江源 曹玉瑾[2] Zhang Mingshen;Lu Jiangyuan;Cao Yujin

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所企业和创业研究室 [2]中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所信用体系和信用环境研究室

出　　处：《全球化》2022年第5期80-89,134,共11页Globalization

基　　金：2021年国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院重点课题“国内国际大循环的历史轨迹、国际经验和相关政策研究”(A2021011001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：我国经济国内国际循环的关系演进,是理论逻辑、历史逻辑和现实逻辑的统一,是深入理解和着力构建新发展格局的重要切入点。本文立足我国国内国际循环历史演进的大背景,以经济发展阶段为分析框架,阐释了加入WTO前后我国经济国内国际循环关系不断变化的内在逻辑,即经济起飞为我国参与国际循环奠定了物质基础,加入WTO为降低贸易壁垒并加快本国经济转型升级创造了机会,从而有力推动我国深度参与全球经济,使国际循环成为牵引国内循环、助推经济发展的重要动力。加入WTO后,从比例、层次、稳健性和控制力四个维度看,我国国内国际循环比例结构经历了倒“U”型演变,内外经济循环层次大幅提升,稳健性和影响力显著增强。面对我国参与全球化“时”与“势”的新变化,需要着力增强国内循环的主体性,积极打造以“一带一路”为核心的区域循环体系,巩固提升中美、中欧循环基本盘,推动更高水平对外开放。The evolution of the relationship between the domestic and international cycles of China ’s economy is the unity of theoretical logic, historical logic and realistic logic, and an important entry point for in-depth understanding and efforts to build a new development paradigm. Based on the background of the historical evolution of China ’s domestic and international cycles, and taking the stages of economic development as the analytical framework, it explains the internal logic of the ever-changing domestic and international cycles of China ’s economy before and after entry into the WTO, and joining the WTO has created opportunities for lowering trade barriers and speeding up the transformation and upgrading of the domestic economy, thereby effectively promoting China ’s deep participation in the global economy, and making the international cycle an important driving force for domestic circulation and economic development. After joining the WTO, from the perspective of proportion, level, robustness and control, the proportion structure of China ’s domestic and international cycles has undergone an inverted “U”-shaped evolution, the level of internal and external economic cycles has been greatly improved, and its robustness and influence have significantly increased. In the face of the new changes in the “time” and “situation” of China ’s participation in globalization, it is necessary to strengthen the subjectivity of domestic circulation, actively build a regional circulation system centered on the “Belt and Road”, consolidate and improve the basic circle of China-US and China-Europe circulation, and promote a higher level of opening to the outside world.

关 键 词：WTO 经济循环 质量提升 新发展格局 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]