基于无偏灰色-马尔科夫链模型的北京市水资源需求预测研究  

The Prediction of Water Demand in Beijing City Based on Unbiased Grey-Markov Chain Model

作　　者：蔡剑英 王烜[1,2] 蔡宴朋 CAI Jianying;WANG Xuan;CAI Yanpeng(State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Bei-jing 100875,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Water sheds,Instite of Environment and Ecological Engineering,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境学院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]广东工业大学环境生态工程研究院/广东省流域水环境治理与水生态修复重点实验室,广州510006

出　　处：《三峡生态环境监测》2022年第3期85-96,共12页Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges

基　　金：国家重点研发计划基金项目(2017YFC0404505);国家自然科学基金重点项目(51439001,51679008)。

摘　　要：开展区域需水量预测研究是促进水资源高效利用和社会经济可持续发展的必然要求。针对目前预测方法无法有效量化需水量随机波动的影响程度等不足,本研究耦合无偏灰色与马尔科夫链模型,预测了北京市2021—2030年的水资源需求量。结果表明:(1)无偏灰色-马尔科夫链模型的模拟精度良好,能较好地模拟北京市的农业、工业、生活和生态需水量;(2)马尔科夫链模型适合处理波动性较大的随机性数据,修正后的需水量预测精度显著提高;(3)2021—2030年北京市需水量预测结果以区间值表述,有效表征了需水量随机波动的不确定性信息;(4)北京市要坚持“开源节流”原则,在保障城市最低需水量的前提下,坚持节水优先,严格控制用水总量,调整用水结构,强化水资源优化配置,确保不超过最大需水量。本研究提高了需水量预测结果的准确性,对水资源的优化配置和城市的可持续发展具有重要的指导和借鉴意义。It is necessary to carry out regional water demand prediction research in order to promote efficient utilization of water resources and sustainable development of social economy.Aiming at the shortage that current prediction methods can not effectively quantify the impact of random fluctuation of water demand,etc.this research couples unbiased grey and Markov chain models to predict the water demand in Beijing City from 2021 to 2030.The results show that:(1)the proposed unbiased grey-Markov chain model has good simulation accuracy and can simulate the agricultural,industrial,domestic and ecological water demands in Beijing City well;(2)Markov chain model is suitable for dealing with random data with large fluctuation,and the accuracy of modified prediction results are significantly improved;(3)the water demand prediction results are expressed as interval values,which can represent the uncertainty information of random fluctuation of water demand effectively;(4)Beijing City should adhere to the principle of“increasing revenue and reducing expenditure”,prioritize water conservation,strictly control total amount of water consumption,adjust water consumption structure,strengthen optimal allocation of water resources,and ensure that the maximum water demand is not exceeded under the premise of ensuring the city’s minimum water demand.This research can improve the accuracy of water demand prediction results,and provide important guidance and reference for optimal allocation of water resources and sustainable urban development.

关 键 词：无偏灰色 马尔科夫链 北京市 需水量 区间预测 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]