贵州省农业与气象干旱特征及其响应关系  

Characteristics of Agricultural and Meteorological Drought in Guizhou Province and Their Response Relationship

作　　者：游漫 贺中华[1,2,3] 张浪 杨铭珂 皮贵宁 YOU Man;HE Zhonghua;ZHANG Lang;YANG Mingke;PI Guining(Shcool of Geographic and Environmental Sciences.Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550001;National Karst Rocky Desertification Prevention Engineering Technology Research Center.Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550001;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Application of Mountain Resources and Environment,Guiyang 550001)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵阳550001 [2]贵州师范大学国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心,贵阳550001 [3]贵州省山地资源与环境遥感应用重点实验室,贵阳550001

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2022年第5期255-264,共10页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(u1612441,41471032);贵州省水利厅自然科研基金项目(KT201402);贵州师范大学2015年博士科研启动项目。

摘　　要：利用贵州省1980-2020年逐月降水与土壤水分计算标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化土壤水分指数(SSI),基于游程理论、传播响应率(Rr)、状态转移概率矩阵等方法探究气象与农业干旱特征变化,以及两者之间的响应关系。结果表明:(1)贵州省农业干旱较气象干旱持续时间长、烈度大,干旱历时空间变化较气象干旱显著,干旱烈度则较单一。(2)季尺度上,春季农业干旱对气象干旱响应最为敏感,夏、秋季次之,冬季较弱;不同地貌类型下,春、冬季在半喀斯特低中山响应程度较高,夏季在峰丛谷地,秋季在非喀斯特地区;不同切割深度下,地表切割,越深春季Rr越高,夏、秋和冬季Rr则越低。(3)在20世纪80s转至21世纪10s状态间,不同地貌类型下均发生不同程度的概率转移,其中春、冬季节转移活跃、概率较低,夏、秋季主要呈“低转高”现象,夏季转移概率偏低,秋季转移概率普遍偏高;在不同切割深度下,各季节浅切割与最深切割深度转移活跃度低,概率高,其他切割深度下转移活跃,但概率低。The standardized precipitation index(SPI) and standardized soil moisture index(SSI) were used to calculate monthly precipitation and soil moisture in Guizhou Province from 1980 to 2020. Based on the run-length theory, transmission response rate(Rr) and state transition probability matrix, the changes of agricultural and meteorological drought characteristics and their response relationship were investigated. The results showed that:(1) The duration and intensity of agricultural drought in Guizhou Province were longer than that of meteorological drought, and the spatial variation of drought duration was more significant than that of meteorological drought, but the intensity of drought was single.(2) At the seasonal scale, the response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought was most sensitive in spring, followed by summer and autumn, and weak in winter. Under different geomorphic types, the response degree was higher in semi-karst low mountain in spring and winter, in peak cluster valley in summer, and in non-karst area in autumn. Under different cutting depths, Rr was higher with the deeper surface cutting in spring and autumn. The opposite was true in summer and winter.(3) During 1980 s—2010 s, different geomorphic types had different degrees of probability transition, in which the seasonal transition was active and low in spring and winter, and the transition was mainly “low to high” in summer and autumn. The transition probability was low in summer and high in autumn. At different cutting depths, the shallow cutting depth and the deepest cutting depth had low transfer activity and high probability in each season, while the other cutting depths had active transfer but low probability.

关 键 词：传播响应率 转移概率 下垫面条件 气象干旱 农业干旱 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]