预期寿命和储蓄率:基于有限生命的拉姆齐模型  

Life Expectancy and Savings Rate:Based on the Ramsey Model of Limited Life

作　　者：刘鹏飞 LIU Pengfei(Institute of Population Studies,Fudan University,Shanghai 200443,China;School of Economics and Management,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学人口研究所,上海200443 [2]宁夏大学经济管理学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《东北大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期22-30,共9页Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BRK019)。

摘　　要：基于数理推导,发现预期寿命和死亡率存在倒数关系,借助这一关系,运用有限生命的拉姆齐模型,推得预期寿命与储蓄率之间存在正相关关系。为了检验这一结论,使用2000—2017年中国31个省份的面板数据进行基准估计,在运用面板工具变量法克服内生性问题,逐步增加控制变量个数、替换被解释变量等稳健性检验之后,估计结果依然支持基准估计和理论分析的结论。该结论的政策含义是:适当延长老年人退休年龄,建立健全养老保障制度,降低因预期寿命延长带来的老年人的预防性储蓄动机,从而刺激消费。Based on mathematical deduction,it is found that there is a reciprocal relationship between life expectancy and mortality.By adopting the Ramsey model of limited life,it is deduced that there is a positive correlation between life expectancy and savings rate.In order to verify this conclusion,a panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017 were used for benchmark estimation.After using the dynamic panel instrumental variable method to overcome the endogenous problem,and adopting such robustness tests as gradually increasing the number of control variables and replacing the explained variables,the results still support the conclusion of the theoretical analysis.The policy implication of this conclusion is:appropriately extend the retirement years of the elderly,establish a sound pension security system,and reduce the elderly s preventive savings motivation to stimulate consumption.

关 键 词：预期寿命 储蓄率 拉姆齐模型 固定效应 动态面板 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学] C92-05[社会学—人口学]