新疆城市化、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

Urbanization,Industrial Structure Adjustment and Urban-rural Income Gap in Xinjiang:Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：奥斯曼·玉散 俞天贵[1] Aosiman·Yusan;YU Tian-gui(School of Economics and Trade,Urumqi Vocational University,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]乌鲁木齐职业大学经贸学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2022年第7期199-205,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(15BMZ082)。

摘　　要：基于新疆1978~2019年的时间序列数据,分析了城市化水平、产业结构变动对城乡居民收入差距的推动作用,并在此基础上建立VAR模型对三者进行了动态计量经济学分析。分析结果表明:城市化水平和产业结构变动是影响新疆城乡居民收入差距的关键因素;城市化水平和产业结构变动对新疆城乡居民收入差距具有长期的正效应;城市化水平与产业结构变动之间没有明显的冲击效应。今后随着城镇化进程的加快,新疆将面临城乡收入差距继续扩大的问题,笔者对此提出了相应的对策和建议。Based on the time series data of Xinjiang from 1978 to 2019,the role of urbanization and industrial structure changes on the income gap between urban and rural residents was analyzed.On this basis,a VAR model was established to conduct a dynamic econometric analysis of the three.The analysis results show that the level of urbanization and changes in industrial structure are key factors affecting the income gap between urban and rural residents in Xinjiang.Urbanization and changes in industrial structure have a long-term positive effect on the expansion of the income gap between urban and rural residents in Xinjiang.There is no obvious shock effect between the level of urbanization and changes in the industrial structure.As the process of urbanization accelerates,Xinjiang is facing the problem of continuous expansion of the urban-rural income gap,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions have been put forward.

关 键 词：城市化 产业结构变动 城乡居民收入差距 VAR模型 新疆 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]