人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的影响路径研究  

Pathways of Population Aging on Household Carbon Emissions

作　　者：陈英姿[1] 胡亚琪 CHEN Yingzi;HU Yaqi(Northeast Asian Studies Center,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《人口学刊》2022年第5期99-112,共14页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目:“十四五”时期环境约束推动产业平稳;绿色低碳发展的机制与路径研究(21ZDA006)。

摘　　要：随着人民生活水平的不断提高,家庭消费领域产生的碳排放占比持续增加,未来家庭碳排放将成为碳减排的重点领域,而人口老龄化对家庭碳排放有显著影响。本文使用2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)构建基于结构方程的并行多重中介模型,分析人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的多重影响路径,探究住房选择的中介效应以及家庭收入的调节效应。结果表明:人口老龄化对家庭碳排放存在两条影响路径,一是人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的正向直接影响路径;二是人口老龄化通过住房面积进而影响家庭碳排放,但家庭收入会削弱该路径,即随着家庭收入的增加,人口老龄化对住房面积的影响减少,进而对家庭碳排放的影响逐渐降低。在此基础上进一步探讨不同群体的异质性。研究发现住房选择的中介效应存在区域异质性,体现为人口老龄化对南方家庭的碳排放以直接影响为主,对北方家庭则是以间接影响为主。同时,住房选择的中介效应在不同家庭类型中的表现不同,住房选择在中年型家庭中为完全中介效应,在老年型家庭中为部分中介效应。政府应以家庭为单位,加强家庭低碳生活宣传,进行消费变革以提高家庭低碳消费意识和能力。切实保障有老家庭的收入水平,充分发挥收入对家庭碳排放的调节作用。与南方相比,北方应投入更大力度进行低碳住房适老化改造,促进住房领域实现碳减排。As people’s living standards continue to improve,the share of carbon emissions generated in the household consumption sector continues to increase,and household carbon emissions will become a key area for carbon emission reduction in the future,while population aging has a significant impact on household carbon emissions. Using data from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),a parallel multiple mediation model based on structural equations is constructed to analyze the multiple impact pathways of population aging on household carbon emissions,and to explore the mediation effect of housing choice and the moderating effect of household income. The results show that there are two pathways through which population aging affects household carbon emissions:the first is the positive direct pathway through which population aging affects household carbon emissions;the second is the pathway through which population aging affects household carbon emissions through housing size,but this pathway is weakened by household income,i.e. as household income increases,the impact of population aging on housing size decreases,and thus the impact on household carbon emissions decreases. On this basis,the heterogeneity of different groups is further explored. It is found that there is regional heterogeneity in the mediating effect of housing choice,with the direct effect of population aging on carbon emissions for households in the South and the indirect effect for households in the North. At the same time,the mediating effect of housing choice differs across household types,with a full mediating effect in middle-aged households and a partial mediating effect in older households. Therefore,firstly,the government can strengthen the propaganda of low-carbon living in households and make consumption changes to improve the awareness and ability of low-carbon consumption among family members. Secondly,the government should effectively protect the income level of households with old age and give full play to the role of income in regula

关 键 词：人口老龄化 家庭碳排放 结构方程 并行多重中介模型 影响路径 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]