浙江红花油茶潜在适生区分布及其对未来气候变化的响应  

Potential distribution of Camellia chekiangoleosa under future climate change

作　　者：汪雁楠 赖国桢 黄建建[1] 刘丽婷[1] 余良森 温强[1] 龚春[1] WANG Yannan;LAI Guozhen;HUANG Jianjian;LIU Liting;YU Liangsen;WEN Qiang;GONG Chun(Key Laboratory for Protection and Utilization of Germplasm Resources of Camellia,Jiangxi Academy of Forestry,Nanchang 330032,Jiangxi,China;Jiangxi Camellia chekiangoleosa Engineering Technology Research Center,Dexing 334000,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省林业科学院江西省油茶种质资源保护与利用重点实验室,江西南昌330032 [2]江西省红花油茶工程技术研究中心,江西德兴334000

出　　处：《浙江农林大学学报》2022年第5期989-997,共9页Journal of Zhejiang A&F University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1000402);国家自然科学基金资助项目(31860179,31260184);江西省重点研发计划项目(20201BBF61003);江西省林业局科技创新专项(202228);江西省科技创新平台项目(20212BCD46002)。

摘　　要：【目的】预测浙江红花油茶Camellia chekiangoleosa潜在分布范围,分析影响其分布的主要环境因子,为浙江红花油茶保护利用及引种开发提供理论基础。【方法】基于浙江红花油茶在中国区域内55个分布点的环境因子,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测了当前及未来3种RCPs气候变化情景下浙江红花油茶在中国的潜在适生区分布及其变化。【结果】影响浙江红花油菜潜在分布的主要环境因子是最冷季度降水量、最暖季度平均气温和土壤类型,其中最冷季度降水量贡献率最高,最暖季度平均气温和土壤类型次之。当代潜在适生区集中分布于中国中部和南部地区,其中,核心分布区主要位于江西、福建和浙江。在未来气候变化情景下,总体适生区范围较当前有不同程度地扩展,总体呈现由华东向西南方向显著扩张的趋势。【结论】浙江红花油茶潜在适生区主要受降水、气温和土壤影响,受海拔影响较小,在中国南方地区有较广泛的适生性,具有引种栽培推广潜力。[Objective] As a unique Camellia tree species in south China as well as an emerging resource of Camellia with oil, medicinal and ornamental value, Camellia chekiangoleosa has great development potential.Therefore, this study is aimed to make a prediction of the potential distribution range of C. chekiangoleosa and conduct an analysis of the main environmental variables which impact its distribution so as to promote its conservation, utilization and introduction. [Method] With the employment of MaxEnt model, on the basis of the environmental variables of 55 distribution points in China, a prediction was made of the potential geographical distribution and change of C. chekiangoleosa in China under three RCPs climate change scenarios.[Result](1) Precipitation of the coldest quarter, temperature and soil characteristics were the main environmental factor affecting the potential distribution with the first contributing the most, followed by the second and the third;(2) With central and southern China as the potential distribution areas currently, the core areas are mainly located in Jiangxi, Fujian and Zhejiang;(3) With future climate change as a norm, the overall potential distribution areas will expand to different degrees, showing a significant expansion trend from central China to the southwest. [Conclusion] Precipitation, temperature and soil characteristics were the main factors affecting the potential distribution of C. chekiangoleosa, with altitude playing a less significant role. It was also found that C. chekiangoleosa enjoys wide range of potential distribution in most areas of south China where efforts in their introduction, cultivation and popularization should be encouraged.

关 键 词：浙江红花油茶 最大熵模型 气候变化 地理分布 环境因子 

分 类 号：Q948.5[生物学—植物学]